Decision-making in the branch of transport has a significant impact not only on the transport system but also on the functioning of the city as a whole and on its perception as a comfortable living environment. The validity of the values of the parameters of the urban passenger transport network will allow to determine the components of the demand for movement and effectively provide transport services while increasing their comfort and improving environmental parameters.
The selection criteria are determined and their specific weight is determined, the classical four-stage demand model is improved by taking into account the influence of external transport hubs and related movements, the general matrix of movements, and distribution of passenger flows in the city is calculated. For this purpose, it is offered to use random utility models.
During the work, a list of criteria for users to choose the type of external transport hubs: the direction of movement, duration of the trip, the cost of the trip, and the time period of departure. To select the mode of city movement, a multinomial logit model was formed, which takes into account the socio-economic characteristics of the user (age, type of employment, availability of own car) and duration of the movement. Questionnaires were conducted to collect data on the characteristics of movements associated with external transport hubs. Using the Statistica software environment, the coefficients of utility functions are calculated to estimate the probability of choosing a certain alternative from the list of proposed ones.
Based on these data in the software environment PTV Visum developed a model for calculating the demand for movement with the modes choice, which takes into account the attractiveness of external transport hubs at the stage of determining the attractiveness of transport zones. Movements related to external transport hubs are taken into account at the stage of calculation of origin-destination matrices.
For the first time, the method of calculation of attractiveness of external transport hubs on the basis of their score estimation is offered, it is offered to consider on the formation of a matrix of movements by city territory the trips connected with external transport hubs, developed the multinomial models of a choice of type to external transport hubs and mode choice for movements by city territory.
The results of the dissertation can be used to determine the parameters of the urban passenger transport network, namely to model passenger flows generated and attracted by transport zones, taking into account the attractiveness of external transport hubs, and their distribution in urban zones by modes choices, and to develop timetables public transport routes, which is a component of the scientific and practical task of substantiation of design decisions to improve the parameters of the city passenger network.
