Kartashova S. Scientific substantiation for improving the estimates of somatic and reproductive health

The thesis concerns improving the process of comprehensive assessment of somatic and reproductive health for interval estimates the age-standardized cause-specific mortality and indicators of potential demographics and indications definition of optimal (size of simple observation) of specific epidemiological studies and construction of uniform interval estimates of survival function for random censored "lifetime" data. The study provides four-phased information-structural model for assessing improvement in population's health state, according to the theoretical probabilistic approach, methodology of recording input data and updating databases; comparison of interval standardized estimates of cumulative, kurtosis and attributive pathological conditions risks, supported by methods potential demographic and uniform estimates of survival functions (generalization criterion Rainier); epidemiological analysis of the investigation results and recommendations for specific epidemiological studies, informational and analytical support for management decisions. For measurement of health state current work provides system of absolute and relative indicator states ratios (including intensive and standardized ones), system of standardized risks, indicators of structural changes. Algorithms of interval estimates of standardized health indicators (binomial statistical model, the Poisson model and martingale) are developed. Methods described in current work were tested on data from the state statistical reports. The paper investigates the features of development of Ukrainian population's health under conditions of long-term impact factors of endogenous and exogenous nature. Keywords: information-structural model, interval standardized assessment of indicators of health, cause-specific mortality, reproductive losses, standardized relative, predicable and cumulative risk, indicators of potential demographic, epidemiological studies, censored observations.