Timofeev V. Atmospheric circulation in the South polar region during the global warming period and the method of long-term forecast of air temperature for the Ukrainian Antarctic Station "Academic Vernadsky

Dissertation is devoted to determine the state of the modern regional climate at the Antarctic Peninsula and Academik Vernadsky station, studying atmospheric circulation in the Southern polar region, and developing methods for long-term forecast of monthly mean air temperature. Thesis covers a significant range of the most important problems of modern climatology, synoptic meteorology, showing the state of the atmosphere and its changes over a period of global warming. The research use of Ukrainian Antarctic station Vernadsky is greatly expanding our knowledge on the state of the climate in the Antarctic Peninsula and their relationship with global processes. Variability that discovered in the atmospheric circulation and its relationship with meteorological conditions (including extreme events) is used for the development of physical-statistical method of the long-range forecast on the Antarctic Peninsula. Mulit-decadal transformation of large-scale atmospheric circulation of Southern Polar region in the period of global warming is studied. Classification of large-scale atmospheric circulation in the Southern polar region helps to identify the regional climate change and its current status. Changes in regional atmospheric circulation in the Antarctic Peninsula under the influence of global warming are shown. Methods of long-term forecast of the monthly mean air temperature and sea-ice conditions have been developed and prepared for use in operational practice at Vernadsky station filling a gap that exists in this type of forecasts. The impact of El Ni?o Southern Oscillation on climate and weather conditions at the Antarctic Peninsula has been studied, with the assessment of prognostic potential. A scheme of monthly mean air temperatures forecast on seasonal lead has been developed and can be used on the other research stations of the Antarctic Peninsula.