Malysh N. Evolution of the epidemic process of acute intestinal infections of bacteriological etiology, risk factors, improvement of epidemiological surveillance

The thesis research aims to solve the important scientific and practical health problem ‒ scientific substantiation of the improvement of the system of epidemiological surveillance over acute intestinal infections of bacteriological etiology on the grounds of determining new scientific data on the peculiarities of epidemic process evolution under the current conditions, influence of natural and social factors, biological properties of the dominant agents. Evolutionary transformations of the epidemic process were accompanied by decline in typhoid fever and shigellosis incidence, increase in salmonellosis incidence, stable high incidence rate for acute intestinal infections caused by other specified agents and ones of unknown etiology, dominance of opportunistic pathogens in the etiological structure of acute opportunistic pathogens; the increasing tendency of incidence rates for acute intestinal infections among the rural population. Preconditions and prognostics of deterioration of the epidemical situation in acute intestinal infections are detected. Phenotypic and persistent characteristics of opportunistic pathogens, agents of acute intestinal infections are determined, which prove their significant pathogenic and adaptive potential. Unified integrated mathematical model for forecasting the epidemic situation in acute intestinal infections has been developed.