Ponomarenko R. Scientific and theoretical bases for forecasting of the technogenic impact on the hydrosphere in basin management of water resources of Ukraine

The dissertation is devoted to solving the scientific and applied problem of forecasting the reduction of man-made load on the ecosystem of surface water supply sources, taking into account the impact of transboundary water bodies in the existing system of basin water management. Based on the conducted retrospective analysis, the tendency to constant deterioration of surface water quality within the Dnieper basin due to man-caused load and transboundary pollution was revealed. The analysis of modern approaches to forecasting changes in the ecological status of surface water bodies has allowed: to identify the main shortcomings of the existing methodology for assessing and standardizing the quality of water; to divide the system of standardization of surface water quality into two categories: water as a raw material, used by man for priority purposes of water use and water of natural surface water bodies as a component of nature; to propose a criterion for assessing the quality of water, which takes into account the geo-ecological processes occurring both in the catchment and in the surface water body; to develop a method for forecasting changes in surface water quality of surface water bodies within the BUVR; substantiate the method of development of standards of harmful effects on surface water bodies, which allows to provide forecasting of changes in their ecological status. The developed methodology and methods are experimentally tested on the example of the Dnieper basin. On the basis of the conducted experimental and field researches the step-by-step plan of transition to water quality management at the level of BUVR on the basis of the offered methods is developed. The adequacy of the proposed approach was confirmed on the example of the Dnieper River (within Ukraine). Variants of improvement of the monitoring system within the river basin are offered, for the purpose of forecasting of change of an ecological condition of the Dnieper river, owing to technogenic loading. The practical significance of the work is confirmed by the acts of implementation in the activities of practical organizations and the educational process.