Vorokhobin I. Development of the Theory and Evaluation methods and Increase of Navigation Reliability

The results of the analysis from the study about the impact of the accuracy of ship’s navigation through a confined route on the safety of navigation were presented. There were considered a priori evaluations of possibility of safe ship’s navigation by confined route with the use of two-dimensional positional error density. The alternative method of determination of possibility of safe navigation is offered in the confined conditions through one-dimensional error distribution density of lateral deviation. The dependence of one-dimensional error distribution density of ship’s lateral deviation on the two-dimensional positional error density was revealed. There was offered a determination procedure of basic parameters for probability evaluation of safe ship’s navigation in the given congested area. There was received a dependence of probability evaluation of safe ship’s navigation of the confined route from the distribution law of lateral deviation error. Comparison of two-dimensional and one-dimensional models of probability evaluation of safe ship’s navigation through the given route was conducted by simulation modeling. There was proposed a forming method of the given route by an electronic chart. The dependence of safety navigation on the vector error of ship’s handling was identified. There was represented a formation model of vector error navigation, which is the sum of systematic and casual components. The dependence of value of systematic error of ship’s handling on the choice of dynamic model of ship turning-ability was obtained. The determination procedure of error value of ship’s handling was received, taking into account the dynamic model of ship’s rotation motion. There was developed a safety navigation evaluation procedure of ship’s turn and offered the choice of optimal route of passage by the reflection of navigation situation with information about safety of navigation. In this paper it can be found results of value evaluation of trajectory error of ship’s turn as a result of in situ observations. The question about the evaluation of exact ship’s position at the surplus lines of position was considered. There was determined an analytical equation for the density of vector error for determination of the ship’s position. It was also shown that the density of vector error depends on the number of lines of position, distribution of their error and angles between directions of their gradients. For different distribution law of position lines errors at their surplus number there were received analytical equations of efficiency calculation of ship’s coordinates, which were examined in the case of their calculation with the use of smaller squares method. There were obtained analytical equations for the calculation of effective ship’s coordinates with the use of maximum likelihood method, which provides their minimum covariance matrix. Development of universal calculation method of effective ship’s coordinates at the excessive measuring was held. For such purpose the orthogonal decomposition of error density of measurements disposal in the row of GramCharlier type А was applied. There was also shown the possibility of orthogonal decomposition of irregular density. The analysis of error density of navigation parameters was performed with its orthogonal decomposition for mixed laws of the first and second types, and also for the generalized law of Poisson. There was developed the method of the use of orthogonal decomposition of error density of lines of position for ship’s coordinate’s determination. Effectiveness evaluation of ship’s studied coordinates was offered by the method which was received. Keywords: safety of navigation, increase of navigation reliability, likelihood of safety navigation, trajectory error of ship’s turn, efficiency of ship’s coordinates, method of maximum likelihood, orthogonal decomposition of density disposal, results of in situ observations.