Pipchenko O. Development of theory and practice for the risk management of complex navigational tasks

The thesis scientifically establishes and validates a new conceptual solution to the important scientific and technical problem of improving the safety of maritime transport operation, which is achieved by using the first introduced and improved existing methods of risk quantitative assessment and management during complex navigational tasks performance. The world fleet incident statistics is investigated and specific cases, including incidents reconstruction on navigation simulators during the deck officers training, are studied, from which the structure of the most frequent errors leading to navigational incidents is obtained. Number of mathematical vessel motion modelling methods with the use of both simplified linear models and space motion models are studied and improved. Interaction models for vessel groups both independent in a common virtual environment and with flexible connections (a tow-vessel system, a seismic vessel with a system of floating cables) are developed. The obtained models are implemented in the form of software used in operations planning and training simulators. Methods for assessing the risk of collision and grounding are further researched, taking into account the vessel manoeuvrability and frequency-response functions of vessel motions. The methods for operational risk assessment of contact with navigational hazard depending on the motion characteristics of the situation (time and distance to the hazard, the closest point of approach) and vessel manoeuvring characteristics are obtained. Algorithms in the form of software for passage planning and route safety assessment with ECDIS (Electronic Chart Display and Information System) are developed and implemented. Keywords: navigation problem, quantitative risk assessment, efficiency, decision support system, mathematical modelling, fuzzy logic.