The dissertation is devoted to the determination of the characteristics of the distribution of Near-Surface Wind Speed, the Total Cloud Fraction and Surface Downwelling Shortwave Radiation in Morocco in 2021-2050 and the definition of areas with favorable conditions for the development of wind and solar energy projects in the near future.
The analysis of modern methods of estimation of wind and solar energy resources is carried out. The main indicators and methods used to estimate wind and solar energy resources in different countries of the world are considered.
The verification of calculations of regional climate models (RCMs) of the CORDEX-Africa project for wind speed, daily maximum wind speed and total cloud cover in Morocco has been carried out. The verification showed that, despite the fact that models in different regions of Morocco with different degrees of accuracy reflect the studied climatic parameters, their results can be considered as input data for the analysis of future states of the climate system in the region.
The analysis of the results of RCMs calculations of wind speed, the daily maximum wind speed, total cloud cover and Surface Downwelling Shortwave Radiation in 2021-2050 in Morocco was performed.
Calculations were carried out and an estimate of the wind and solar energy potential of Morocco in 2021-2050 was carried out.
It is established that areas with the necessary wind potential for the further development of wind energy will be: the Mediterranean coastline between the cities of Nador and Al Hoceima; the territory adjacent to the Strait of Gibraltar in the administrative area Tanger – Tetouan – Al Hoceima; the Atlantic Ocean coast from the city of El Jadida to Cape Ghir; and the coastal areas of the administrative regions of Guelmim – Oued Noun, Laayoune – Sakia El Hamra, Dakhla – Oued Ed-Dahab.
By the magnitude of the wind power density at an altitude of 50 m, the middle and significant wind potential will own a plot of the Atlantic coast between Essaouira and Agadir. The richest wind resources in the future will have a section of the Atlantic coast south of the city of Tarfaya. The Tanger – Tetouan – Al Hoceima region during the period from February to April will be characterized by average reserves of wind resources. The coastline of the Atlantic between Essaouira and Agadir in the period from April to September will have a significant and more wind potential, and the Atlantic coast area in the area of Laayoune – Sakia El Hamra will have significant and more of wind resources throughout the year.
The analysis of the distribution of total cloud cover showed that in the years 2021-2050 most of the territory of Morocco will be characterized by a small amount of the total cloud cover. In the mountainous areas of the High Atlas, the Rif and the Taourirt Oujda, and in areas of the Atlantic coast near the settlements of El Jadida, Safi, Laayoune, Bojador and Dakhla, models predict an increase amount of the total cloud cover (from 40 to 60%). The lowest values of the total cloud cover (up to 20%) will be typical for the border areas with the Algeria in Souss – Massa region, lying at the foot of the southern slopes of the Anti-Atlas.
In the future, the distribution of Surface Downwelling Shortwave Radiation will have a quasi-latitudinal character with some deviations in the mountainous and Atlantic coastal areas. Areas with the largest solar energy potential will be internal areas of southern Morocco and southern slopes of the Anti-Atlas Mountains, where, along with the increased magnitude of short-wave radiation, the minimum values of total cloudiness are projected.
The impact of climate change on wind and solar energy resources in Morocco was rated. In the area of the Strait of Gibraltar and the adjoining areas in the future, an increase in wind speed is expected.
Expected changes in Surface Downwelling Shortwave Radiation in 2021-2050 in relation to the current climatic conditions have both positive and negative values. The predicted decrease in the arrival of short-wave radiation in the southern Atlantic coast near the city of Dakhla coincides with the increase in the total cloud cover in the area predicted by the RCMs. In the greater part of Morocco, RCMs have shown an increase in the amount of short-wave radiation or the preservation of its values.
