The thesis deals with the actual scientific problem, which was to develop the teoretical and applied models and methods of integrated risk management of agricultural projects to reduce the time, cost and unforeseen costs of resources during the implementation of such projects.
A general analysis of the current state of the agro-industrial complex of Ukraine was conducted, the main problems and strategic goals of the development of the agricultural sector of the economy were outlined. It was found that agricultural enterprises during the implementation of projects in the agro-industrial complex may face along the usual risk factors, as well as specific industry risks, which are described and analyzed in the dissertation research.
The author has improved the terminological basis and proposed the term «integrated risk management of agro-industrial projects».
A conceptual model of integrated risk management of agro-industrial projects "KVITKA" has been developed, which, in contrast to existing ones, integrates risk management processes from different project management methodologies such as PMI (PMBoK), P2M, PRINCE2, AGILE, ISO 21500, on the principle of complementarity, reduces the time for project risk management and allows the project team to introduce a flexible response to the occurrence of risky events in the projects of agricultural enterprises.
A risk management model of agro-industrial projects «4 SEASONS» has been developed, which, in contrast to existing ones, is based on data obtained from the application of the risk identification model of agro-industrial projects «4 SEASONS», which is a circle and consists of four sectors (seasons), and measures for prevention and avoidance have been developed for each risk.
The author has improved the methods of integrated risk management of agro-industrial projects - abbreviated and full. The abbreviated method of integrated project risk management, unlike the existing ones, includes only mandatory project risk management processes, which allows it to be used in agricultural projects in conditions of limited time. The full method of integrated risk management of projects, in contrast to existing ones, involves the implementation of risk management processes from integrated risk management methodologies PMI (PMBoK), P2M, PRINCE2, AGILE, ISO 21500, on the principle of complementarity, which allows to fill gaps in risk management in the listed risk management methodologies of projects and to introduce a more thorough and effective risk management process of agricultural enterprises.
The method for managing opportunities and threats of agro-industrial projects has been improved, which, unlike the existing ones, is based on the application of the interactive Weirich matrix and allows to identify and analyze the strengths and weaknesses, threats, and opportunities of the project, to determine the correlation of impacts and threats with strengths and weaknesses, to identify strategic factors, and to develop appropriate strategies to reduce the impact of threats and make good use of opportunities.
The method of managing seasonal risks of agro-industrial projects has been further developed, which is based on grouping risks by a season of the year and provides an opportunity to flexibly manage them by selecting a particular method of dealing with risk according to the season of the year.
Using the concept model of integrated risk management "KVITKA" for agro-industrial projects, the project environment for increasing the number of dairy cows due to the import of cows was analyzed and risks were identified. The identified risks of this project were analyzed using the abbreviated method of integrated project risk management, which allowed the identification of high and medium risks, as well as suggest measures to eliminate and prevent them.
Using the method of managing opportunities and threats in agro-industrial projects, the opportunities and risks of the project on the increase in the number of dairy Holstein-Frisian cows were analyzed, for which the project team applied appropriate strategies, which made it possible to increase the effectiveness of decision-making by the project manager on integrated project risk management.
In this project, the use of the models and methods developed by the author for integrated risk management of projects in the agro-industrial complex allowed to reduce the level of unexpected expenses by 13.2% compared to other similar projects.
The results of the dissertation research are implemented in the process of project management of the agricultural enterprise projects at the private agricultural enterprise "Oleksandria" and farming enterprise "Voronenko".
As a result of the application of the models and methods developed by the author of integrated risk management of agricultural enterprises projects, it allowed to reduce the level of unexpected expenses by 10-15% compared to other similar projects.
