Manhul O. Economic security of Ukraine in the system of factors of economic growth

Українська версія

Thesis for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

State registration number

0822U100223

Applicant for

Specialization

  • 051 - Соціальні та поведінкові науки. Економіка

23-12-2021

Specialized Academic Board

ДФ 18.819.004

Dmytro Motornyi Tavria State Agrotechnological University

Essay

Based on the analysis of the modern theory of economic development, it is determined that the essence of economic security is the systemic balance of the economy, which provides in the existing system of social relations positive qualitative changes while maintaining a steady pace of expanded reproduction and self-determination of national interests in competitive external influences. The following differential classification of economic security of the country is offered: security of economy of extensive growth and security of economy of intensive growth. The classification is based on the method of using factors of production, which prevails in the country's economy and determines the type of expanded reproduction. A methodological approach to the study of economic security of the country has been developed, the theoretical and methodological basis of which involves the identification and structuring of indicators for assessing the level of security in the system of factors of economic growth. The structural-logical scheme of practical approbation of the methodical approach is substantiated, which includes blocks of analytical assessment, determination of hierarchy and formalization of influence. It is proved that the share of economic growth factors in the structure of the integrated indicator of economic security of Ukraine is 78.7%. According to the results of the study of the current state of economic security of Ukraine, it is established that the integrated security indicator is at an unsatisfactory level and is 47.7% - 49.8% of the optimal value. The generated parametric maps revealed 40 indicators - threats in nine areas of the country's economic security. Substantiated classification of economic security sub-indices into stable, variable, unstable and uncertain It is noted that the components of economic security have a heterogeneous qualitative assessment with divergent dynamics. It is established that the formation of Ukraine's economic security is of an extensive type in the system of factors of technology and organization of production, growth of consumer and government spending, monopolization of markets and shadowing of the economy. The interdependence of economic security and economic growth of the national economy is proved. According to the results of correlation-regression analysis, the existence of a significant functional relationship between the level of integrated economic security and the growth rate of real gross domestic product of Ukraine, the coefficient of determination is 89.36%. Common critical factors for the formation of economic security and economic growth of Ukraine for the period 2010-2019, in particular: the volume of construction work, natural population growth rate, the level of average monthly wages and the level of dollarization of money supply. The coefficient of determination of the functional dependence of the integrated indicator of economic security of Ukraine on the established factors is 81%, and the growth rate of real gross domestic product is 69%, respectively. According to the results of dynamic simulation it is proved that the formation of a favorable macroenvironment for the growth of Ukraine's economic security is determined by factors of import price of gas, gross value added of Ukrainian industry, costs of scientific and technical work and the number of specialists involved. Based on the correlation-regression analysis, it was found that the coefficients of determination of the functional relationship of factors in the dynamic simulation model is in the range of 74% - 94%. Recommendations have been developed to improve the methodology for assessing the level of economic security of Ukraine, which involves the application of open relative indicators and the introduction of rapid analysis of changes in economic security through the assessment of target indicators, and create incentives for the transition to security growth.

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