Klochko L. Forecasting of probable mechanisms of buildings destruction

The main content of the thesis. In the dissertation work, an algorithm for modelling the possible building or construction accident occurrence was developed and implemented for accomplishment by design engineers with using a three-dimensional frame model at the stage of design documentation development. Collected and processed statistical information on building and construction accidents for 2000-2022 is the main basis for creating the algorithm. The aim of the study was to create an algorithm for modeling the mechanism of the probable accident occurrence at a construction object in order to ensure its reliability and failure-free operation. The first chapter of the thesis presents general information about accidents in construction and forecasting the accident scenario. There are considered the current state of the issue; historical experience of building and construction accidents; the concept of accidents and statistical data processing in them; methods of risk assessment and forecasting the accident scenario of a construction facility. The second chapter is devoted to the systematization of accidents in construction, the main provisions of the work based on the research of information on building accidents for the past century are presented. The processing of information on buildings and structures accidents for 2000-2022 was carried out. The collected material includes 283 cases of buildings and structures destruction for the period 2000-2022 years. Presented accidents during the construction and acceptance in operation in the amount of 106 incidents; during operation – 109; reconstruction – 26 cases; accidents due to the big age of the facility – 42 accidents; accidents without established reasons; accidents caused by natural factors; considered accidents of high danger structures, namely tanks. The third chapter presents the classification of accidents in construction according to the probability of their occurrence. The analysis of the collected statistical material of buildings and structures accidents for 2000-2023 years was carried out. The results of the analysis are presented in the form of graphs and percentage diagrams. The analysis showed that the highest percentage of accidents occurs at the stage of construction and acceptance in operation (54%) for residential multistory buildings (55%), which is mostly caused by non-compliance with construction rules (50%) (violation of safety rules, designers’ errors, conducting illegal construction and use of low-quality materials). The fourth chapter presents an algorithm for modeling the possible occurrence of a building or structure accident. The main stages of carrying out the algorithm for modeling the possible occurrence of a building accident are determined, which include determining: the building type, the sequence of modeling the possible accident occurrence an at the construction site, analysis and conclusions based on the deformed frame model. The fifth chapter of the thesis is devoted to the implementation of the developed algorithm for modeling the possible occurrence of an accident on the example of a real construction object. During the implementation of the created algorithm for modeling the possible occurrence of an accident at a construction site, namely, an industrial building, 9 scenarios of the structures destruction in various cases were performed. In accordance with the research objectives, building and construction accidents statistics for 2000-2022 years were created, a classification based on the probability of their occurrence was proposed, the method of calculating economic and non-economic consequences was analysed and applied, an analysis of building and construction accidents was carried out, based on this analysis, an algorithm for modelling possible occurrence of a building or construction accident, which would be implemented on the example of an industrial building. The results obtained by the author in this thesis due to their high relevance in use are implemented in practical design and the educational process. The first experience of the practical algorithm application showed its perspective and the possibility of using it as a tool for ensuring the reliability and safety of buildings and structures in engineering.