Antoniuk Olena Illivna O. Macroprudential policy of the central bank in conditions of economic cyclicality.

In the dissertation, a theoretical generalization is made and a solution to the current scientific problem is proposed, which consists in using the tools of macroprudential policy to ensure the financial stability of the banking sector in conditions of economic cyclicality. On this basis, in the paper the theoretical foundations of macroprudential policy in conditions of cyclical economic development are substantiated; an evaluation of the effectiveness of the macroprudential toolkit was carried out based of empirical studies carried out in different countries; a matrix of indicators for the introduction of cyclical instruments of macroprudential policy in Ukraine is proposed. In order to assess the current state of macroprudential regulation, the dissertation substantiates the following factors of influence on financial stability and systemic risk: firstly, these are quarantine restrictions in connection with the Covid- 19 pandemic; secondly, geopolitical instability and military actions in Ukraine in connection with aggression from russia. It was determined that in the period of the corona crisis and at the beginning of full-scale aggression on the part of the russian federation, the anti-crisis policy of the NBU is characterized by the easing of measures in the field of monetary regulation and banking supervision (the only exception is currency regulation). These measures in the conditions of pandemic restrictions made it possible to somewhat revive the development of lending and ensure the accumulation of the necessary capital by banks. In the conditions of war, taking into account the forecast of a significant increase in inflation and a fall in GDP, we consider the following combination of policies to be the most appropriate: monetary restrictive policy; softening of the macroprudential toolkit and introduction of a number of fiscal measures in the sphere of promoting the recovery of bank lending. The thesis proves that the conditions of economic cyclicality require, first of all, the assessment of indicators of the cyclical component of systemic risk. It includes an excessive growth of credit volumes and debt burden; and liquidity shortages and imbalances. The preliminary analysis made it possible to substantiate the system of indicators and argue the following: GDP dynamics is the main indicator of economic cyclicality; the dynamics of loans is a sufficiently accurate indicator for evaluating credit cycles and requires a detailed analysis by customer categories and sectors; indicators based on the assessment of capital adequacy may change depending on various factors, so they should be evaluated in the context of the general situation in the economy and the financial market in particular. The dynamics of these indicators were analyzed using the Hodrick-Prescott filter, which made it possible to determine the critical values of indicators for the introduction of macroprudential tools. The credit-to-GDP ratio indicator based on gap estimates using the Hodrick- Prescott filter allows for the identification of excessive credit growth with a certain time lag. However, the practical value of the indicator lies in the assessment of the critical level and dynamics. The need to substantiate the transmission mechanisms for the introduction of macroprudential policy tools has been proven. Transmission channels, cross-border spillovers and regulatory arbitrage should be taken into account when introducing individual macroprudential policy instruments. The following transmission channels are characterized: quantitative, price and waiting channel. Cross-border and crosssectoral flows mean flows of capital, resources and assets to other sectors or countries that are not subject to macroprudential regulation. Regulatory arbitrage occurs when banks take steps to avoid compliance with stricter regulations. It was established that the negative effect of spillovers and arbitrage can be reduced by coordinating the actions of regulators of individual sectors and countries, while regulatory arbitrage requires stricter control.