Ensuring the conditions for socio-economic development involves the development of strategies and policies to strengthen financial stability, which contributes to sustainable development and effective management of financial resources. The main task of the financial security system is the prompt identification and prevention of external and internal risks. A qualitative assessment of financial security allows you to accurately determine its level and identify potential threats, ensuring an effective response to financial crises and minimizing the consequences for the economy and society.
Recent years in Ukraine have been difficult due to the systemic financial and economic crisis, the reduction of production, the increase in the budget deficit and Russian aggression. In this context, adequate assessment of financial security to identify potential risks becomes important.
The purpose of the dissertation is to develop scientific, methodological and practical recommendations for assessing the financial security of the state in the context of stabilization of socio-economic development.
The following methods were used to analyze and justify the obtained research results: analysis, synthesis, formalization, historical-logical method, structural-decompositional, statistical analysis, and the method of the system approach; as well as special techniques, namely comparative analysis, Harrington's method, fuzzy logic approach, correspondence analysis, principal component method, relative normalization, exponential smoothing forecasting, ranking method, canonical analysis, synergistic method, and multiple regression analysis.
During the dissertation research, the essence and evolution of approaches to financial security were determined, a mechanism for ensuring it was developed and a bibliometric analysis of vectors of scientific research was carried out.
The work established that the transparency of financial security management is reflected in the work of state authorities. The Bureau of Economic Security, which fights economic crimes, does not effectively manage and control the financial and economic security of the state. The overall level of the shadow economy was used as an indicator of the effectiveness of its work.
The state of the state's financial security was determined using two methods: an estimate from the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine and an alternative method of the multiplicative model of nonlinear convolution. According to the sectoral assessment, it was found that the least protected areas are debt security, non-banking financial market and budget security. The segments of the banking system and monetary security are more stable. In general, the economy of Ukraine is protected by half, and in some periods only by a third, from financial threats.
It is proposed to use an improved toolkit for assessing the state's financial security based on the construction of a model of a nonlinear convolution of indicators of direct and indirect influence, which is based on a combination of the power function and Harrington's method, taking into account priority and adjusting for the ratio of opportunity and risk. This model is unique in determining the most relevant indicators from the World Bank database. As a result, it is proven that the integral indicator of financial security reflects the greatest fluctuations when potential threats appear in the system. The multiplicative model better describes the level of financial security and reflects a more realistic situation in the country, which is important in the context of management decision-making. The prospective financial forecast showed a decrease in the general indicator of the financial security of Ukraine over the next five years.
In connection with the beginning of a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the need to take into account military risks for changing the level of financial security was revealed. According to the results of the canonical analysis, it was established that the development of the state's financial security is 63.99% due to changes in market financial indicators, the fluctuations of which values are caused by military risks. Thus, the increase in military spending, which in 2022 amounted to 44 billion dollars, which is 33.5% of GDP, reduces the level of financial security of Ukraine by 0.41%. A change in the official exchange rate also has a directly proportional effect on the level of financial security, an inverse relationship exists for the growth of non-performing bank loans, the volume of foreign debt and the country's general reserves.
Taking war risks into account, the recommendations include improving controls and management to assess the financial security of the state during post-war recovery. The government should focus on strengthening financial security and take measures to protect the country's financial interests and ensure the stability of socio-economic development.
