The dissertation is devoted to solving an important scientific problem in the field of civil protection – the development of information, mathematical models and the formation of a methodology based on them, the application of which will allow increasing the effectiveness of preventing man-made emergencies by building a forecast of the occurrence and development of man-made emergencies in the engineering infrastructure of the city.
To achieve this goal, it is necessary to solve the following scientific problems.
1. To analyze modern methods and approaches to the prevention of technogenic emergencies as a result of accidents in urban life support systems.
2. To develop an information model to improve the efficiency of preventing industrial emergencies as a result of accidents in the engineering networks of urban life support systems.
3. To develop a mathematical model for assessing the effectiveness of managing the process of preventing a technogenic emergency in the engineering networks of urban life support systems.
4. To develop a methodology for preventing industrial emergencies due to accidents in the engineering networks of urban life support systems.
5. To verify the reliability of the developed models and methods based on them.
The object of research is the process of preventing technogenic emergencies as a result of accidents in the engineering networks of urban life support systems.
The subject of the study is the parameters of the process of preventing technogenic emergencies as a result of accidents in the engineering networks of urban life support systems. To solve the scientific problems set in the dissertation research, models and methods of systems theory, the theory of random processes, discrete-event simulation modeling, methods of mathematical statistics, methods of analysis of multivariate series, and methods of geostatistics were used.
During the execution of the dissertation, new scientific results were obtained:
– for the first time, an information model was developed to increase the effectiveness of preventing man-made emergencies due to accidents on engineering networks of city life support systems. It consists of nine functional blocks connected by direct and feedback loops, which together provide a comprehensive solution to the problem (monitoring, anti-crisis management and management of limited resources) with the aim of creating an effective system for combating man-made emergencies on city life support systems;
– for the first time, a mathematical model was developed to assess the effectiveness of managing man-made emergencies on engineering networks of city life support systems, which is the difference of two probability values. The first is the current value of the probability of detecting signs of man-made emergencies on engineering networks of city life support systems. The second is the standard probability value obtained for a typical scenario of events;
– for the first time, a methodology for preventing man-made emergencies due to accidents on engineering networks of urban life support systems has been developed, as part of the control algorithm and its procedural content, namely the procedures: justification and definition of formats of output (input) data on the state of engineering networks of life support systems; engineering and technical justification of the system for monitoring the state of engineering networks of life support systems; organizational and technical implementation of the developed mathematical model of an accident on an engineering network as a source of a possible emergency; software and hardware implementation of the information model and methodology based on it; justification of relevant management decisions, allowing to further minimize the consequences of man-made emergencies due to accidents on engineering networks of life support systems, by reducing the probability or preventing the latter;
– for the first time, an interactive hardware and software complex has been developed to prevent man-made emergencies due to accidents on engineering networks of urban life support systems, based on the functionality of a territorial information system as part of a digital cartographic basis managed by a GIS shell; application software for predicting the consequences of emergencies and the corresponding emergency database.
