Kyzylov G. The diagnostics of enterprise risk and prognostication of its factors tendencies, its factors development tendencies in construction (using the example of specialized construction enterprises)

The object of the research is the process of enterprise risk diagnostics, forecasting and neutralizing. The purpose of a research: is to develop the mechanism of early diagnostics for enterprise risk and to forecast the tendencies for its essential factors. The methods of the research and equipment - general theo-retical principles of the modern economic theory, the manage-ment theory, laws of Ukraine, scientific works of the domestic and foreign scientists - economists. The statistical information about outcomes of activity of the building enterprises is used. Generalized outcomes of selective inspections. The probability - statistical methods, methods of expert evaluations, a system approach, the methods of correlative and regressive analysis, methods of the time series analysis are used. The theoretical and practical value - The formulated positions, generalizations and the methodical approaches to the theoretical aspects of complex solving for the substantiation problems of the factors hierarchyof enterprise risk, the forecasting their tendencies of development and early diagnostics of enterprise risk. The practical value of the research lies in the fact that it contributes to solving of such key problems, as improving the mechanism of corporate management and increases of enterprise activity. The introduction them allows to diagnose enterprise risk con-nected with negative tendencies, to determine a degree of validity of loss profitableness risk of ineffective administrative solutions, to create a monitoring system of an enterprises to control the tasks solutions, to ensure the necessary adjust-ments for operational leverage and management strategy of in time. Scientific novelty: the essential factors are identified here for the first time and, namely, the factor of reduction of contract work volume and the factor of operational activity profits and their ranks are determined. The estimation of the systematic risk level for expenditures growth is made. The form and the parameters of the connectionbetween tax pres-sure and the ratio between creditor and debtor's indebtedness are determined, the limiting average rates of the taxes, which exceeding causes risk of insolvency, is determined; the mechanism for look-ahead diagnostics of risk of insolvency are offered. A forecasting creditor and debtor's indebtedness tech-nique are advanced. Level of implementation: The practical significance of the research have been introduced in economic activity of the con-traction enterprises and their use is confirmed by the corre-sponding certificates of introduction. Field of application: contraction enterprises.