Kapitonenko M. Conflict Potential of the Post-Bilpolar International System.

The thesis is aimed at investigating connections between systemic parameters of the current international relations and trends and peculiarities of genesis, development and resolution of international conflicts. To this end a theoretical model of the post-bipolar international system has been created with its parameters being international structure, nature of the elements and systemic connections. On this basis a typology of international conflicts has been built. Further on, different conceptual approaches to the problem of stability of international systems have been analyzed and assessed. Basic principles for conflict management have been formulated. The rise of new types of international conflicts and the reactivation of traditional ones indicate the level to which the current international politics is ready to face new challenges. The ability to scientifically explain and effectively manage new types of conflicts demands understanding of basic connections within post-bipolar international system.Thus the idea put forward in the paper is about the decisive influence systemic factors have upon the development of both traditional and non-traditional international conflicts. In order to capture and evaluate such influence, a model of post-bipolar system has been created. Major trends affecting world affairs are converted into systemic factors and presented in the model. The way they influence international conflicts encompasses shaping of foreign policy alternatives for different states, creating imperatives for regional security structures and changing the value of conflict objects. The model is the basis for typology of international conflicts. The latter has been developed according to four main types of modern international conflicts: traditional interstate conflict; intrastate conflict with international implications; asymmetric conflict and international terrorism. All the types have been examined through the influence changing structure has on their development. The influence of systemic factors also results in changing criteria for stability. Two models of multipolar and unipolar (hegemonic) stability have been examined. The results indicate that the main condition for stability lies on the systemic level and it is about how the structure makes at least some forms of conflict non-beneficial for all parties, creating Pareto optimality. On the basis of this principle main forms of conflict management have been considered. Some of them, which are traditional, have to adapt to systemic changes, while others need to be developed to meet new forms of challenges.