Zadorogniy A. Dynamic investigations and forecasting of agricultural land water logging process in composition of the ecological-reclamation monitoring system

A method of analysis of long-term dynamic of agricultural land water logging process on the basis of using modern synergetic methods including mathematics methods of system statistic simulation has been elaborated. Ecological-reclamation monitoring database of Kahovka hydro-geological-reclamation expedition are systemized. Knowledgebase and database are created. Destiny histograms of areas for different water levels for different pilot objects and regions are schemed. A method of situation forecasting of agricultural lands water logging on different pilot objects and regions taking into account the precipitation and water supply dynamic has been developed. This method is based on the Markov discontinuous chain. Identification of Markov chains for the certain objects depending on the forecast external situation allows carry out the situation forecasting of water logging processes and build the proper prognosis histograms with water logging areas estimation. Comparison of sum of probability of rejectionof the actual states of Markov's chain in forecast moment of time and prognosis probabilities of the same states, which are expressed in the particles of unit or in percents is showed satisfactory to the practical aims accuracy of forecasting. The comparison substantiates and confirms possibility of application this method for situation forecasting in composition of the ecological-reclamation monitoring system.