Proskurnin O. Prognostication of technogenic pollution impact on the environment by the method of nonparametric regression analysis

The object of thesis investigation is technogenic contamination of environment. The purpose of the investigation is an improvement of methodology to forecast state of pollution for impacted environment by means of statistical data processing. Methods of the investigation is as following: 1) statistical trials (Monte-Carlo method); 2) probability theory; 3) mathematical statistic; 4) mathematical analysis; 5) computer simulation. Scientific novelty of investigation is in developed statistical method for nonparametric forecasting technogenic pollution influence onto environmental state. Such theoretical and practical results were obtained: 1) the way to use statistical trials method to estimate coefficients in the regression dependence of state of environment and pollution rate was theoretically based; 2) the algorithm and the computer program to forecast the state of environment by proposed method was developed. Thesis results were practically used to solve following important problems: 1) assessing ofimpact from waste water discharge of "Berdyansky vodokanal" enterprise onto water quality of Azov sea; 2) monitoring of forests in Kharkov and Lugansk regions of Ukraine; 3) computing of water quality in the Seversky Donetz river below waste water discharge from "Rubezhansky Krasitel" factory. Fields of usage of investigation are: design and fulfillment of environmental monitoring; assessing of environmental impacts caused dangerous technical objects.