Bilak P. The Evolution of Taiwan's Mainland China Policy

The thesis investigates the evolution, the current stage and the prospects of Taiwan's mainland China policy from the viewpoint of neorealist paradigm of international relations theory. The thesis demonstrates that classic neorealist balancing/bandwagoning dichotomy is not an appropriate research approach to the study of cross-Strait relations between Taiwan and China. Therefore, the author introduces and clarifies the theoretical concept of hedging which refers to a state's two-pronged strategies aimed at maximizing returns and minimizing risks from interaction with other states on the international arena. The author claims that this concept is more appropriate for the analysis and explanation of Taiwan's strategy toward China. The historical evolution of Taiwan's mainland China policy from uncompromised balancing to a softer approach combining elements of both balancing and bandwagoning is investigated. Primary attention is paid to the analysis of Taiwan's mainland policy under Ma Ying-jeou administration (since 2008) in different realms. Thorough study of Ma Ying-jeou's mainland China policy gives enough reasons to qualify it as hedging aimed at receiving substantial gains by establishing closer and more pragmatic ties with China and at minimizing risks posed by China's growth by maintaining close military ties with the U.S. Having identified Taiwan's strategy toward China as hedging, the thesis goes on with the analysis of probable reasons, particular manifestations and future prospects of Taiwan's hedging strategy. Possible factors shaping the evolution of Taiwan's hedging strategy are identified and their relative impact evaluated. The thesis concludes that under the circumstances of growing China's influence in the East Asia region the strategy of hedging appears to be the most feasible and pragmatic choice for Taiwan in its relations with China.