Shkrabalyuk Y. Macroeconomic Aspects of the Exchange Rate Impact on the Dynamics of Foreign Trade

The dissertation investigates the problem of the exchange rate effect on the foreign trade dynamics. The paper considers the evolution of the exchange rate theories and models of its determination, examines the significance of exchange rate impact strategies on the basic parameters of foreign trade, carries out a critical analysis of empirical studies and tests of the Marshall-Lerner condition. According to valid algorithm the dynamics of the real effective exchange rate of hryvnias is calculated, the hryvnia's devaluation impact on trade balance of Ukraine is empirically assessed, the transmission mechanism of currency devaluation on export and import demand in emerging economies (evidence from the group of selected countries - Ukraine, Russian Federation, Kazakhstan, Poland) is studied. The relationships between demand for exports and imports and changes of macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine and its trading partners are simulated and evaluated, the interdependences of Ukrainian foreign trade dynamics and exchange rate movements by major commodity groups and trading partners are analytically measured, maximum expected losses and gains in country's foreign trade in case of exchange rate change are estimated by applying econometric tools of VAR-models.