Kushnierova N. Synthesis methods and models forecasting system of emergency situations on board based on wandering diagnostic kernel.

Dissertation is devoted to development of methods and models for the synthesis of forecasting of emergency situations, based on the introduction of structural, programmatic and enough time. The purpose of research is to improve the performance of the forecast probability of emergency situations on board an aircraft. The object of the study is the emergence and recognition of emergency situations on board an aircraft. The subject of research are the methods and models of forecasting of emergency situations on board an aircraft. The paper applied the methods of observation, comparison, system analysis, modeling, probability theory, the theory of distributed systems; methods of analysis and synthesis, formalization, modeling, theory and methods of diagnosing systems; methods of analysis, modeling, probability theory, graph theory, method of determining the posterior probability of ranking; methods of analysis and synthesis, mathematical modeling, graph theory, construction and analysis matrices. The scientific novelty of the thesis is as follows: For the first time offered a set of methods and models for the synthesis of forecasting of emergency situations on board an aircraft. Improved methods of diagnosing emergency situations on board an aircraft using the method of self-control and self-diagnostics. Graph improved diagnostic model. Further developed the basis of a probabilistic model of the adequacy of diagnostic data and model analysis of accumulated diagnostic information system. The research results are implemented in the development of scientific and methodological study on developing a device navigation and communication systems in the interests of national security and defense in the Central Research Institute of Navigation and Control as well as useful in the research and in the teaching process at the Department of flight operations, aerodynamics and dynamics flight dynamics of Kirovograd Flight Academy NAU academic discipline "Flight operation of aircraft"