Kaspiytseva V. Estimation and prognosis of quality of atmospheric air at regional level

Українська версія

Thesis for the degree of Candidate of Sciences (CSc)

State registration number

0418U000610

Applicant for

Specialization

  • 21.06.01 - Екологічна безпека

14-02-2018

Specialized Academic Board

Д 26.056.05

Essay

The object of study - a process of estimation and prognosis of the state of atmospheric air of territory of region. The purpose of work is an increase of ecological safety by development of block of estimation and prognosis of the state of atmospheric air in the system of the regional ecological monitoring at planning and building of territories. Methods of researches - an analysis of the systems and generalization of existent researches on issue of estimation and prognosis of the state of atmospheric air, objective method at the construction of the hierarchical system of models, methods of mathematical analysis and design, expert estimations at determination of indexes top level, numeral methods of decision of equalizations of gas dynamics and thermodynamics. Theoretical and practical results: the block of prognosis and estimation of the state of atmospheric air is developed in the system of the ecological monitoring, which includes the models of determination of the state of resource potential and quality of atmospheric air, regional ecological and economic model, models of distributing of passive admixtures on territory of region, distributions of contaminants from the sources of extrass and construction of the fields of contaminations from data of measuring; a structure, composition and method of determination of integral indexes of the state of resource potential and quality of atmospheric air of territory which will allow for every region to define resource possibilities of atmosphere taking into account landscape climatic terms and industrial potential, is developed, and will give possibility to conduct districting of the territory of Ukraine on the offered indexes; there was grounded the expediency of supplementing the forms of information submission to the Monitoring Center for data on physical pollution, in particular radiation, noise, electromagnetic and acoustic, as well as the levels of ultraviolet radiation and ionization of atmospheric air, the number of days with thunderstorms, the repetition of winds and inversions for assessing the state of atmospheric air for the introduced indicators, which allows to raise the level of environmental safety in the region. Scientific novelty: the use of hierarchical row of mathematical models of distribution of passive admixtures and from powerful point sources was grounded, constructions of the fields of concentrations were substantiated for a complex estimation and prognosis of the state of atmospheric air, taking into account its contamination, climatic, socio-economic features and resource potential in the scenarios of socio-ecology-economic development and town-planning activity of regions. which allows to promote their ecological strength security at the stage of implementation of project and searching works; a structure is first developed, composition and dependences are set for determination of resource of life in quality of atmospheric air and resources of macropower, transport environment and useful chemical matters, that allows to expect the generalized integral index of the state of resource potential of atmospheric air of territory at the decision of tasks of ecological safety; it is set on results of the research by calculations made during the examined period of time that the generalized integral index of the state of resource potential of the Dnepropetrovsk area is 0,795, that on a compatible measuring scale corresponds the state "well" with the stake of resource of life 43,02 %, useful chemical matters 22,77 %, macropower 22,26 % and a transport environment 11,95 %, but here a calculation value of index of resource of life is the least, that specifies on unsatisfactory ecological strength security in connection with considerable contamination of atmospheric air in a region; a structure is developed, composition and dependences are set on determination of indexes of protected, chemical and physical contamination of atmospheric air, that allows to expect the generalized integral index of quality of atmospheric air of territory, which takes into account unlike known natural and climatic and socio-economic features, incident to the region; possibility of the use of model of distribution of passive admixtures is grounded, which is based on supposition about the quasi-stationarity of change in concentrations of contaminants, for the calculation of the fields at their spatial distribution, as specific gravity of chemical contamination predominates in the estimation of the state of atmospheric air, that allows visualize a prognosis and carry out operative control of his change at times and by the coordinates of place of territory at the decision of tasks of ecological safety. Degree of implementation: Job performances are used for development of Program on diminishing of contamination of atmospheric air basic bypollutants Dnеpropetrovsk on 2008 - 2015, and also at development of recommendations as evaluated by assimilatory potential of city.For the decision of tasks of ecological safety with the use of the developed complex of models the estimation of protected of territory is conducted from atmospheric contaminations and recommendations are given on a maintainance and proceeding in the natural state of atmospheric air, to creation of favourable terms for the vital functions of habitants Dnepr; the prognosis of possible consequences of large emergency situations is executed for Volnogorsk Mining and Metallurgical Combine. The results of researches are inculcated in SPE "Geotechnology" at the estimation of influence on the environment of objects and buildings which are designed or reconstructed. Scope of use: on the enterprises of mining and metallurgical and building industry of Ukraine, in the research institutes of the National academy of sciences of Ukraine, Government service of Ukraine on emergencies, Management after ecology of the Dnepr town council, Committee of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine on Environmental Policy, Nature Resources Utilization and Elimination of the Consequences of Chornobyl Catastrophe, higher educational establishments of corresponding profile and project establishments

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