The dissertation solves theoretical and practical task on improving the method of forecasting hazardous locations on the road network. Analysis of normative and scientific-practical literature showed up that traffic safety problems are global for Ukraine. Road traffic injuries and deaths in Ukraine are among the highest in Europe. Overwhelming majority of known techniques are aimed at processing and analyzing data on traffic conditions after the accident, and the assigned measures are aimed at improving road conditions at black spots only.
It is noted at the design stage that the road safety audit allows identifying and eliminating possible causes of accidents, which are related, in particular, to the road parameters and road conditions.
The paper improves the method of forecasting hazardous locations on the road network on the basis of substantiation of non-compliance index of road conditions with the traffic requirements, which allows to preventive determination of such locations. It is established that the boundary value of the non-compliance index is 15 kmph, until this value the road section can be considered safe.
A method for calculating spatial visibility on the highway has been developed, which allows establishing the boundaries of visibility zones in the forward direction of traffic, visibility of the oncoming car, visibility triangle at the intersection.
Combining speed data with other data of the « Driver - Car - Road - Environment - Information» system and accident data, a combination of hazardous factors that have a decisive influence on the occurrence of each accident or the formation of hazardous locations and black spots on the road network. Modeling using non-compliance index on the studied M-14 road allowed establishing 27 hazardous locations, unlike only one location using the «classical» approach.
Conducted full-scale and analytical, methods of mathematical statistics assigned, studies of traffic speeds in different road conditions not only confirmed the adequacy of the developed method, but also allowed to establish up-to-date data on road geometric parameters, traffic flow, traffic speeds, vehicle loads. In addition, approaches to the processing and interpretation of such data, further improvement of approaches to the formation of design solutions for the road construction, road repair and road maintenance were proposed.
Regularities of speed change from the influencing factors are established. The obtained accuracy of these regularities (correlation coefficient R = 0.85) allows to use them in practical calculations.
The results of experimental studies indicated the need to develop algorithms for calculating the boundaries of road sections with homogeneous traffic conditions and the constant velocities. For each road section, the reason for the decrease in speed compared to the free flow speed and the traffic flow speed, which in certain conditions will be considered equally acceptable and safe for all vehicles of the traffic flow.
The conducted comparative analysis of the obtained research results with the statistical data on road accidents allowed establishing the distribution of hazardous locations on the studied roads.
The developed methodology and software allow meeting the needs of road safety audit by flexibility of the algorithm, speeding of calculations to prevent accidents and, as a consequence, black spots. It is established that the preventive detection of hazardous locations provides an opportunity to further develop solutions to eliminate hazards by carrying out construction works, repair works and road maintenance.
