The dissertation is a comprehensive study of the domestic and foreign historiography of the “Crimean problem” in Ukrainian-Russian relations with the author's vision of the scenario of events in Crimea in the context of hostilities.
In the first chapter, “The State of Scientific Development and Theoretical and Methodological Foundations of the Analysis of the Crimean Issue”, the author analyzes domestic and foreign literary sources on the study of the “Crimean problem” in Ukrainian-Russian relations.
Taking into account the historical retrospective, the key problems of interstate interaction in the post-bipolar environment are formulated.
Seven groups of literary sources are analyzed and classified.
The methodological tools of the theories of institutionalism, Crimean regionalism, balance of power and geopolitics of the Black Sea region are considered.
The use of theoretical and methodological tools of the classical theory of the regional security complex allowed to refute the statement that Ukraine's importance for Russia is explained only by economic/energy and military-political issues. The paper proves that Russia's complete loss of control over Ukraine is a step towards the collapse of Russia's control over the entire zone of Moscow's geopolitical interests.
In the second section “Ukrainian-Russian Confrontation: The Political and Ideological Reality on the Crimean Peninsula” examines the events that preceded the annexation of Crimea and the creation of unrecognized entities in the east of the Ukrainian state before March 2014.
It is stated that the Crimean crisis could have been avoided if the Constitution of Ukraine had clearly prohibited the secession of any territorial-administrative unit from the State from the very beginning, which does not exclude the possibility of constitutional regulation of possible territorial modifications within the State.
It is determined that after 2014, unlike the Russian side, the Ukrainian side fulfilled the terms of the Minsk format.
It is noted that the activities of the Ukrainian authorities on the Russian direction were characterized by weakness, which was due to the lack of international support at that time, and the De-occupation Strategy until 2021 provided for a diplomatic solution to the conflict.
The author emphasizes that the transformations in the humanitarian sphere that took place in independent Ukraine did not actually cover the Crimean peninsula, thus creating the basis for the Russian Federation's information and psychological influence. This created the preconditions for the fragmentation of the humanitarian space, and then led to the violation of the territorial integrity of the Ukrainian state through the occupation of a part of Ukrainian territory by a neighboring state.
The third chapter, “Scenario Foresight and State Policy Toward Crimea in the Context of and after the Hot Phase of the Russian-Ukrainian War,” focuses on possible scenarios and threats to the status of Crimea after a full-scale Russian invasion.
The inevitable and variable trends and threats, as well as the foundations of Ukraine's state policy on the restoration of Crimea are considered.
Possible scenarios and the probability of each of them are proposed. A scenario for the development of events in Crimea in the context of hostilities “De-occupation of Crimea by Military Means and its Consequences” is formed, which takes into account the main characteristics, key events, key players and indicators of the scenario.
Priority areas after de-occupation are identified, in which the Strategy for Cognitive De-occupation of Crimea and the Strategy for Restoration of Crimea after De-occupation play a decisive role.
The author describes the main key areas of recovery: new infrastructure; safe dismantling of the Crimean bridge; energy independence; development of tourist infrastructure; restoration and realization of the violated rights of the indigenous peoples of Ukraine; security and defense of Crimea; restoration of the rule of law, comprehensive human rights; protection of the Crimean ecosystem. However, the implementation of this Strategy may face unexpected challenges from the Russian Federation, which may take unpredictable measures to prevent the de-occupation of Crimea.
The article considers transitional justice, which will help to avoid future conflicts on the territory of the Crimean peninsula and should become an effective mechanism for implementing the policy of restoring the de-occupied Crimea.
The author focuses on the area of transitional justice - bringing perpetrators to justice for crimes of collaboration.
