Shmelova T. Scientific and methodological basis of modeling decision support Air Navigation System

The thesis is devoted to solving important scientific and technical problems of increas-ing safety of modeling and optimization of decision making of operators in the Air Navi-gation System as a Socio-Technical System. For the first tame made for socio-technical analysis of the air navigation system, sys-tematized and formalized factors influencing the decision-making. On the basis of the reflexive theory of bipolar choice the expected risks of decision-making of the Air Navigation System's operator have been studied and the influence of external environment, previous experience and intention of the human-operator has been identified. The methods for analysis of decision-making by the human-operator in Air Navigation System using stochastic networks have been developed. For the first tame logic determined and stochastic models of decision-making by the Air Navigation System's human-operator in flight emergencies have been developed. The scenarios of developing a flight situation in case of selecting either the positive or negative pole in accordance with the reflexive theory have been obtained. The informational support system of the operator in the unusual situations on the basis of Neural Network model of evaluating the efficiency of the potential alternative of flight completion has been built.