Lynnyk I. Theoretical bases of forecasting of evolution system "the driver - a vehicle - transport network - environment"

The dissertation is devoted to developing theoretical bases of forecasting the evolution of ergonomic systems. For this purpose, in the dissertation was: аnalysed major scientific research in ergonomics, existing methods of forecasting , evolutional models and was defined the most acceptable for further research; analysed the relationship between "the driver - a vehicle - transport network - environment" (DVNE), the principles of interaction between the driver and the enviroment was also defined and from set principles of interaction of making ergonomic systems principles of interaction the driver with the environment was allocate, allowing to model ergonomic systems at forecasting of their evolution; a model for the forecast of the evolution of ergonomic systems in closed and open conditions for the cycles of formation and the destruction of determinism taking into account the influence of the environment on the condition of the system was also developed;a high quality analysis of the evolution of DVNE systems was also made; the influence of the external environment on the evolution of DVNE systems during different periods of the closed and opened conditions was also defined; a forecast of the evolution of the ergonomic DVNE system was made using as an example the forecast of the evolution of the volume of transportation using the city passenger transport of the city Kharkiv and recommendations about practical use of research was offer; an estimation of the efficiency of the models for defining the possibilities of a defined condition of the environment and the entropy of the environment and models of forecasting the evolution of DVNE systems was made.