Melnyk A. Regularities and factors of transformation of economic crises in global space.

Українська версія

Thesis for the degree of Doctor of Science (DSc)

State registration number

0515U000931

Applicant for

Specialization

  • 08.00.02 - Світове господарство і міжнародні економічні відносини

30-11-2015

Specialized Academic Board

Д 26.001.02

Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv

Essay

The essence of the concept "global economic crisis" is explored, through disclosure of related categories (crisis threat, crisis situation, crisis stage, crisis effects), determine the form, characteristics and forms of distribution channels and phases of the life cycle. Done classification of the causes of global economic crises in accordance with the following classifications: by source of origin (external, internal), by the nature of the exposure (direct action, indirect action), by means of detection (subjective, objective), by area of origin and distribution (political, social, technological, environmental, financial, economic); by stages of crisis flow (reasons of appearance, reasons for distribution); by the nature of crisis (circular, artificial, market), by the complexity of detection (superficial, deep). Identifying the causes of global economic crisis will make it possible to predict the scope of its occurrence, intensity and extent, depth of defeat the world economy. Formulated "classic" reasons for their occurrence. By "classical" author understands the reasons, which in identifying and awareness can not be eliminated, but can be taken into account when predicting the crisis and thus reduce their negative impact of the global economic crisis. The revised method of diagnosing and predicting global economic crisis through expanding list of indicators and dividing them into four groups (macroeconomic, structural, financial and private sector), analysis of the dynamics which indicates the formation of internal precondition of economic crisis acting and its possible escalation in world economic crisis. Worked out theoretical and methodological foundations of forming and institutional and organizational aspects of the functioning of the detection mechanism prerequisites of global economic crisis, which includes totality of socio-economic means (methods, techniques, instruments, standards, indicators), the use of which ensures the formation properties of national economies to functioning effectively, prevent external impact of the crisis and prevent their internal acting. Proposed the methodic of predicting changes in Ukraine GDP with regard to external and internal changes.

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