Katkova I. Models and methods for assessing, forecasting and managing the strategic activity of an enterprise under uncertainty

The purpose of the thesis is the scientific study and development of complex models and methods of assessment, forecasting and strategic management activities of enterprises operating in conditions of uncertainty, providing improvements in financial management through the use of systemic concepts of financial planning and management of uncertainty. The object of study - the process of strategic planning and financial management in terms nevyznachenosti.Predmet research - complex mathematical models and methods for solving optimization problems of system of strategic financial planning and management under uncertainty. Research methods. The theoretical and methodological basis for research is the methodology of system analysis in order to take into account the joint interaction of the system and the environment; methods of multidimensional discriminant, cluster analysis, fuzzy diagnostic expert systems creation for correct solution of tasks of estimation and forecasting of the state of the control object; theory of management in conditions of uncertainty, mathematical programming for the decision of tasks of management of strategic activity of the enterprise; economic dynamics, probability theory, and mathematical statistics for obtaining adequate descriptions of the dynamics of the state of the control object. Scientific novelty of the obtained results. For the first time, developed and implemented modern technology of fuzzy diagnostic expert systems with regression inference mechanism that allowed to solve the problem assessment and forecasting of multiparameter systems for with fuzzy input data; formulated and implemented the concept of strategic financial planning system that provides an integrated solution is private the tasks of strategic financial planning and management of the state of the enterprise, taking into account their interdependence and interconnection. Further elaborated: economic and mathematical model of selecting strategic areas of the company that are different from the known fact that to take account of differences in profitability levels of risk amounts placed capital models and methods of distribution management assets for strategic activities that differ from known taking into account differences in profitability, risk levels of activity, as well as multi-stage nature of the distribution procedure, - a complex of mathematical models and methods of system optimization tasks solution together choosing the draft plan logistics development taking into account differing amount of investment, the level of debt and leverage arising under this effect, the investment risk in the implementation plan, models and methods of solving the problem of investment portfolio management , which differ from those known for those that take into account the uncertainty and risk in assessing the state of the environment, as well as the level of potential income from the enterprise.