Shendryk S. Models and Information Technology Decision Support in Management of the Hybrid Energy Grid

The aim of the study is to increase the efficiency of decision-making at the management of the HPG with RES by developing models, information technology and creating a system to support management decision-making, which can help with the choice of an effective solution under uncertainty. For the first time developed - ITDS in the HPG management, which in contrast to the existing takes into account the predicted values of generation, consumption and electricity quality, supports the full cycle of information processing and conversion into knowledge when choosing an effective HPG operation mode, which allows to increase the effectiveness of decision support in management of HPG. Has been improved - a model for determining the electricity generation level from RES, which, unlike the existing ones, uses fuzzy mathematics, fuzzy regression analysis methods and allows to predict the generation mode taking into account the influence of forecasted meteorological conditions fuzzy data, wich will increase the effectiveness of decision support in management of HPG; - a forecasting electricity consumption model based on fuzzy mathematics and fuzzy regression analysis, which provides an opportunity to comprehensively take into account the factors influencing the need for electricity, which allows to increase the accuracy of short-term forecasting when making decisions on HPG management. Got further development - decision support model, which provides a choice of effective operation mode from possible available alternatives to determine the optimal configuration HPG in terms of multicriteria, based on the fuzzy production rules usage, which, unlike existing ones, takes into account the operational HPG logic in the conditions of constant change of meteorological conditions in time and dynamics of interaction of components of HPG, the forecasted level of generation, the forecasted level of consumption of the electric power and quality of the made and consumed electric power which allows to obtain information on the compliance of the level of consumption with the level of electricity generation and, thus, to provides decision support in the management of HPG in conditions of uncertainty.