Melnykova V.A. Project risk management of construction industry enterprises. – Qualifying scientific work on the rights of the manuscript.
The dissertation for the scientific degree of PhD, specialty 073 "Management". – National Technical University of Ukraine "Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute"; National Technical University of Ukraine "Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute", Kyiv, 2020.
The dissertation is devoted of practical recommendations for project risk management of construction industry enterprises in the conditions of constant transformation of the external environment.
The first section defines the nature and specifics of risk and project risk. Project risk is a set of risks that threaten the economic efficiency of the project, which is manifested in the negative impact of internal and external factors on the financial component of the project in the process of implementing the investment project. It was found that the risks affect the main constraints in the project, the so-called "triple constraint": the content, cost and duration of the project.
The critical analysis of normative-methodical bases of project risk management and assessment allowed to form a normative-methodical mechanism of project risk management on the basis of regulations of the UN Economic Commission for Europe and methodological provisions of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine on methods of identifying risks related to public-private partnership evaluation and determination of the form of their management.
Based on the analysis of modern methods of risk management and assessment, the organizational and economic algorithm of project risk management is built.
In the second section, a comprehensive study of the state of the construction industry market of Ukraine, the impact of state regulation on the functioning of construction companies and identified constraints on the development of the construction industry.
It is investigated that the largest operator of the Ukrainian real estate market is PJSC HC "Kyivmiskbud". The analysis of financial activity of the enterprises which are a part of holding "Kyivmiskbud" showed that during the analyzed period the enterprises were unable to provide the activity with own means, the main reason of what is a geopolitical situation in the country that influenced decrease in demand for purchase of objects, materials, rising labor costs and more.
Using the STAR risk assessment methodology, the overall level of risk of the researched projects was determined and it was found that the most influential are financial risks, macroeconomic, demand and market risks.
It was found that the analyzed project risks in their list contain a large number of both qualitative and quantitative indicators, which makes it difficult to identify and assess the patterns of their impact on the effectiveness of construction projects. To confirm the impact of significant project risks on the activities of the surveyed enterprises, a correlation analysis of project risks on the parameters of construction projects (NPV, IRR, PP), cluster and pair-correlation analyzes were performed. According to the results of pair-correlation analysis, the close relationship between the resulting parameters of investment projects of construction companies and project risks was confirmed / canceled. This made it possible to identify the most influential risks on the resulting parameters.
The third section improves the methodology for assessing project risks by forming classifiers and matrix schemes of aggregation of project risk parameters of construction industry enterprises on the basis of fuzzy set theory, which allowed to perform quantification assessment of the level of aggregate threat of their project risks and determine the status of investment projects implementation of these enterprises.
In order to streamline the process of risk identification, an organizational and methodological mechanism for assessing the project risks of the construction industry through the application of assessment techniques tools to the object of assessment was built.
In order to improve the reliability of the proposed method, the value of entropy was determined based on the method of K. Shannon, which characterizes how far the system under study deviated from the ordered structured state and how it approached a completely chaotic and unstructured homogeneous form. Obtaining the values of the entropy level allows to reduce the level of uncertainty about the conditions of implementation of the investment project by the construction industry.
