Lesiuk A. Comprehensive analysis of the financial condition and forecasting the probability of bankruptcy of agricultural enterprises

The theoretical and methodological provisions and offers practical recommendations for a comprehensive analysis of the financial condition and forecasting the probability of bankruptcy of agricultural enterprises. It generalizes the theoretical approaches to the existing system of scientific views on the essence of a comprehensive analysis of the financial condition and bankruptcy of agricultural enterprises, presented in the works of national and foreign authors, their compliance with legislative regulations of Ukraine. The elements of a comprehensive assessment of the financial condition of agricultural enterprises are substantiated. The benefits of implementing a comprehensive assessment of the financial state of agricultural enterprises in Ukraine are established. The author’s method of complex assessment of the financial condition of agricultural enterprises (multifactor model), which allows to objectively assess the availability, location and efficiency of the use of available resources of the enterprise and the sources of their financing has been offered. It is recommended to assess the financial stability of agricultural enterprises by using three groups of indicators (coefficients): 1) indicators of the structure and value of sources of capital; 2) indicators of the state of capital; 3) indicators of capital use. The conducted research allows to classify the influence of external and internal factors on the financial results of agricultural enterprises in Ukraine. Theoretical approaches to defining such categories as “insolvency”, “business entity insolvency”, “bankruptcy” are generalized. The main models for estimating the probability of bankruptcy of enterprises are studied. The advantages and disadvantages of multifactor models for assessing the probability of bankruptcy of enterprises are identified. Characteristic signs of bankruptcy of agricultural enterprises are determined. The author’s method of forecasting the probability of bankruptcy of agricultural enterprises in Ukraine, which takes into account the industry specifics and allows to classify business entities of the researched industry depending on the propensity to bankruptcy is proposed. The verification of multifactor models for predicting the probability of bankruptcy according to the methods of national and foreign scientists, tested on the basis of agricultural enterprises of Poltava region. External and internal factors of receivables and payables, as well as factors that determine the insolvency of agricultural enterprises in Ukraine are identified. According to the results of the research, the implementation of practical measures to prevent bankruptcy in the studied agricultural enterprises of Poltava region is proposed. It is established that the financial condition of these enterprises can be improved by using the following reserves: increase production by eliminating losses during harvesting; increasing production through introduction of new varieties of crops; increasing production through additional fertilizers; increasing production by avoiding violations of the structure of sown areas; increase production by increasing the number of animals; increasing production by improving the use of feed; increase production by improving the level of animal feeding.