This dissertation research focuses on the definition and scientific conceptualization of the interests and role of Ukraine in the context of interstate cooperation in the Baltic-Black Sea area (BBSA).
To address the research objectives, the author analyzed the international military-political, economic and socio-cultural cooperation of Ukraine with 13 states of the Baltic-Black Sea area: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Belarus, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Moldova, Bulgaria, Georgia, Turkey, as well as cooperation with these countries in the framework of international organizations operating in the BBSA: Lublin Triangle, Organization of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation Organization, GUAM Organization for Democracy and Economic Development, Community of Democratic Choice, Eastern Partnership, Central European Initiative. Ukraine's cooperation with such regional initiatives in the BBSA as Bucharest-9, Visegrad Group, the Three Seas Initiative and the Council of the Baltic Sea States was considered separately.
The geopolitical environment of the Baltic-Black Sea area is considered by the author as one of the key dimensions in the formation and realization of Ukraine’s interests in light of new challenges and threats of global and regional character. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the geopolitical interests of the Western world and those of Russia intersected in the BBSA. The result was the formation of a "buffer zone" in the BBSA, which includes Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova, states that are not members of NATO or other military defense alliance. As for the other BBSA states, all of them, with the exception of Turkey, were formerly members of the Warsaw Pact and are now members of NATO.
Given that one of Russia's main foreign policy priorities is a revanchist course to restore geopolitical control over Ukraine and to weaken NATO on its eastern flank, this study confirms that Russia's hybrid threat affects all BBSA states, which belonged to the sphere of influence of the Soviet Union in the bipolar world..
Given this geopolitical situation, the BBSA states must consolidate their efforts to counter Russia's hybrid aggression and increase the security and stability of the BBSA and thus the entire European space.
This dissertation highlights the need to revise and supplement Ukraine's foreign policy priorities. Along with Ukraine’s potential accession to the EU and NATO, an additional foreign policy vector was proposed – building an alliance with the BBSA states.
In this context, the opportunities, preconditions and tools for the creation of the Baltic-Black Sea Union (BBSU), in which Ukraine must play a key role, are considered. The main purpose of such an alliance is to effectively counter Russian hybrid aggression. In addition, this research examines the possibility of achieving other goals: the implementation of important investment projects, solving regional problems, and deepening socio-cultural cooperation.
According to the criteria identified in the research process, such as foreign policy interests, experience of interstate cooperation, factors of Russian threat, historical and cultural proximity, mutual sympathy of peoples and political elites, four categories of BBSA states have been distinguished in terms of potential allied relations. The states of the highest priority: Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania, in view of the common historical heritage of the great medieval states of the Kyivan Rus, the Grand Duchy of Lithuania and the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth; 2nd priority countries: Estonia, Latvia, Romania, Georgia; 3rd priority: Czech Republic, Slovakia, Moldova, Bulgaria; 4th priority: Belarus and Hungary. The role of the United States of America, whose assistance is extremely important for the implementation of such an integration project in the BBSA, is highlighted. At the same time, such an alliance needs to develop a strategic partnership with Turkey.
