Pyvovarova H.B. Management of economic risks in conditions of financial instability (on the example of the railway transport enterprise). - Qualification scientific work on the rights of manuscript.
Dissertation for the academic degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the specialty 051-Economics. - Dnіpro National University of Railway Transport named after Academician V. Lazaryan, Dnіpro, 2021.
The purpose of the dissertation research is the theoretical and methodological substantiation and development of practical recommendations concerning the management of economic risks in conditions of financial instability.
Scientific and methodological approaches to making investment decisions under conditions of risk with respect to debt and equity securities, as well as real investment projects have been developed.
Improved the scientific and methodological approaches to modeling the laws of distribution of indicators of expected effectiveness of investment under conditions of uncertainty simulation of investment project.
Developed economic-mathematical models of cash flows of the investment project in conditions of risk, including in the field of railway transport.
The state of railway transport in terms of risk management has been analyzed.
The relationship between the level of risk and profitability in the financial market has been investigated.
Using the developed methodological approaches, taking into account the factors of uncertainty and risk, the assessment of the economic efficiency of the investment project in the field of railroad transport has been performed. The scientific novelty of the results obtained consists in the substantiation and further development of scientific and methodological approaches and practical recommendations concerning the management of economic risks in conditions of financial instability. Developed in the process of research important scientific provisions that define the scientific novelty of the dissertation work are as follows:
improved:
scientific and methodical approaches to making investment decisions under conditions of risk regarding debt and equity securities, as well as real investment projects, which, unlike existing ones, take into account the differences in economic efficiency criteria under conditions of risk of debt financial instruments on the one hand and equity instruments and real investment projects on the other hand, uniquely establish a relationship of discount rate with regard to risk premium and the law of distribution of cash flows for debt financial instruments, determine the criteria of economic efficiency of investments at risk on the basis of a set of possible scenarios, taking into account the connection between the levels of return and risk, which is found in the financial market, which allows to coordinate approaches before making decisions under the risk on the basis of one and a set of scenarios;
scientific and methodological approaches to modeling the laws of distribution of indicators of expected effectiveness of investment under uncertainty using the method of statistical tests, which, in contrast to existing ones, involve the use of polygonal, including triangular, distribution laws of factor indicators of simulation models, which allows to adequately reflect the known information about them;
have been further developed:
economic-mathematical models of cash flows of the investment project under conditions of risk, including railway transport, which, in contrast to existing ones, allow to form a simulation model of the investment project to apply the method of statistical tests, which reduces the level of uncertainty and formulate the problem of making an investment decision for risk conditions;
approaches to the forecasting of cash flows of an investment project in the field of railway transport, which, in contrast to existing ones, take into account the relationship of factor indicators of the simulation model, as well as intervals of their possible fluctuations, which allows the use of forecasting results in the procedures of statistical tests.
The practical significance of the obtained results is the use of research results for the practical work of the divisions of JSC "Ukrzaliznytsia" (certificate dd 18.03.2021 87-b), as well as in the educational process in the training of bachelors and masters (certificate dd 13.04.2021 NDCH - 48/97).
Practical value have the results of the research of the state of railway transport in terms of risk management and the relationship of the level of risk and profitability in the financial market and the obtained model of the dependence of the rate of return on the level of risk, measured as the standard deviation of profitability.
Key words: risk, uncertainty, discount rate, law of distribution of cash flow, expected efficiency, risk premium, rate of return, vector optimization, method of statistical tests.
