Kashcha M. Economic and mathematical modeling of the impact of COVID-19 on the countries' socio-economic development and on systems of medical and social protection of population

The dissertation work is devoted to solving the scientific problem of the transformation of socio-economic development and theoretical and methodological foundations of population support's medical and social state under the influence of the Covid-19 pandemic. The dissertation summarizes the current scientific work on determining the impact of Covid-19 on socio-economic development and medical and social support of the population, examines the change in the vector of scientific interests of researchers around the world with the emergence of Covid-19, highlights the world's largest scientific schools, analyzes current research directions, related to pandemic issues. As a result of a thorough scientific metric analysis, more than ten areas of non-medical research related to the pandemic and vaccination that are relevant among the world's scientists were identified: the reasons for the differentiation of the population's desire to be vaccinated voluntarily; attitude to vaccinations depending on gender, age and social status; forecasting various scenarios of economic recovery; consequences of global information media and the fight against disinformation; the expediency of informational and administrative pressure on the population; growing role of social networks for the vaccination campaign; sufficient and necessary conditions for overcoming the pandemic; the part of selfresponsibility for one's health and the health of the people around; the need to convey truthful information about the consequences of vaccinations from medical personnel; the need for more extended vaccine testing periods, etc. The results of the conducted scientometric analysis can be helpful for further empirical research, namely, mathematical modeling of the reasons for refusing vaccinations and forecasting the consequences of the pandemic depending on the intensity of the vaccination campaign. In the form of a structural and logical scheme, a conceptual model is depicted that analyzes the determinants and factors that must be investigated to study the development of countries in the pre-pandemic period. The work identifies indicators of the consequences of COVID-19 and measures the transformation of the development of the world's countries as a result of the pandemic. From more than 20 indicators that characterize different aspects of the development of society, the most relevant ones were selected, based on which integral indexes were built in various areas before and after the pandemic. Fluctuations in each of the researched spheres of different countries of the world were analyzed. This made it possible to reveal that such a transformation took place in the economic, political-institutional, and financial-budgetary spheres, and it affected the general state of the "feeling of happiness" among the world's population. The methodology of frontier analysis of models of the organization of the world's healthcare systems, in terms of their effectiveness and resilience to the impact of COVID-19, has been improved and proposed for practical use. For the study, four groups of countries of the world were formed according to the fundamental principles of the formation of the health care system and a statistical base of 45 indicators that characterize the effectiveness of the health care system. Using the method of principal components, a set of relevant indicators was selected for each model of the organization of the health care system, which best characterizes it. Also, with the help of the normalization of hands using the Harrington method and multiplicative convolution of normalized relevant indicators, integral indices were calculated, indicating the economic efficiency of various models of the health care system organization. Also, a study of resilience to Covid-19 was conducted to compare models of the healthcare system organization comprehensively. Based on the construction of the input-oriented BCC model and the output-oriented CCR model using the Frontier Analyst environment, the effectiveness of each model of the organization of the health care system was calculated. The presence of a reserve or a lack of a corresponding indicator for achieving the "ideal state" was identified in each country » healthcare systems. The combination of three different approaches to assessing the quality of the health care system organization model made it possible to determine the best type, and the inability of the medical and social security system to quickly respond to epidemiological challenges significantly reduces the effectiveness of the medical system and confirms the need for reforms. The main provisions of the thesis are brought to the level of methodological developments and practical recommendations that can be applied in the activities of state executive bodies, local self-government bodies, trade unions, and industry associations.