Benenson O. Formation of an effective investment strategy on the international stock market

The dissertation is devoted to the research of theoretical and practical aspects of the formation process of investment strategies on international stock markets in the conditions of globalization of the world economy, as well as the development of new and improvement of known approaches to effective investment. Modern conceptual models of formation of investment strategies on international stock markets are analyzed and summarized, their features are determined. It was found that when investing in the Indonesian stock market, the highest average returns are shown by shares of companies operating in the light industry and agriculture sectors. Low profitability is typical for shares of companies in the industrial sector and the real estate sector. Shares in the consumer goods sector demonstrate a fairly high level of profitability with a relatively low level of risk. The manifestations of the phenomenon of cyclicality in the economy were considered. It was found that despite the existence of stable cyclical patterns in the economy in general, at the international stock markets, in particular (economic, socio-political, time, etc.), this phenomenon has not been studied sufficiently yet and, accordingly, does not have wide practical use in the formation of investment strategies. Recommendations were formulated regarding the specifics of using the inversion curve indicator of the yield difference of ten- and two-year US Treasury bonds. It has been established that the inversion of the yield curve is a fairly reliable signal of a possible fall in the stock market. At the same time, the market begins to decline not immediately after the fact of fixing the inversion, but on average five-seven months after it. The need for periodic updating of the limit values of the W. Buffett indicator is substantiated. This is due to the rapid pace of technical progress, which contributes to the emergence of new technologies, materials, the emergence of new sectors of the economy, etc., which allows the use of human labor and resources with increasing efficiency, and, as a result, contributes to the constant change in market conditions. Peculiarities of manifestation of seasonal cyclical patterns "January Barometer" and "First Five Days of January" on the US stock market over a fairly long historical period of time were studied. The high potential of their use for forecasting the predominant direction of the stock market movement for the coming year has been revealed. At the same time, for each of the considered cycles, there were established features and recommendations for its application, following which can ensure forecasting accuracy up to 93,5%. The peculiarities of the manifestation of the socio-political cyclical regularity of the "Presidential Elections Cycle" in the conditions of the "new economy" have been considered. It has been established that currently only one year (preceding the year of the US presidential election) out of the entire four-year cycle has stable results. The expediency of using technical analysis indicators to increase the efficiency of investment strategies in international stock markets is substantiated. In particular, the properties of J. Appel's MACD (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence) indicator have been studied in detail and methods for increasing the efficiency of its application have been proposed. As a result of a comprehensive analysis of the advantages of stock exchange funds actions, the expediency of their use as the main investment tools in investment strategies is substantiated. It has been proven that when forming an investment portfolio, the main goal of which is to preserve capital and obtain a relatively low profit, it is advisable to include shares of the SPDR Trust (SPY) exchange-traded fund only in those cases when an upward trend is expected in the stock market and Select Sector SPDR shares Consumer Staples (XLP) - when there is no certainty that the markets will grow in the nearest term. An effective investment strategy on the international stock market has been developed and proposed, taking into account following indicators and cyclical patterns, which appear in the international stock markets: the fact of fixing the inversion curve of the yield difference between ten- and two-year US Treasury bonds; a sharp rise in gold prices; the Buffett indicator; the "January barometer" indicator in cases of positive growth in the Standard & Poor's – 500 Index on the results of January, "First five days of January" indicator in cases of positive growth of Standard & Poor's - 500 Index on the results of the first five working days of January, the “presidential elections cycle”, in which the position of the year in its four-year period matters and the party that is at the authorities in the USA; the signals that are generated by indicators of technical analysis: MACD, Momentum and ROC.