Shevchuk P. The methods of regional projecting of the number and structure of population

The system of the methods of demographic projecting has been investigated and сlassified. The priorities and proposals, concerning the regional features of demographic projecting, are also determined. The technique of regional research and projecting of main demographic processes (such as fertility, mortality and migration) has been improved. In the thesis the definition of the “regional” factor of impact on the demographic processes is determined. The technique of statistical modelling in application to multy-regional demographic projecting has been also improved. It was proposed to reveal not only the tendencies of demographic processes, but also both their structural and background components depending on socio- economic factors. By consolidation of statistical and cartographic methods, the demographic zoning of Ukraine has been carried out. The demographic zoning for the integrated regions with assistance in the law of the large numbers can be used for reducing of a projecting error. In the thesis the original technique of relative accuracy of the projecting “a priori” proposed and applied. It is based on the comparative analysis of projecting results on the various taxon levels of regions.