Maksimenko O. Models and methods of the risk-oriented approach that provide the estimation reliability of the basic project characteristics

The research object of the dissertation work is the analysis process of innovation projects. The goal of the research is to ensure validity of project analysis results by selection and use of appropriate project indices evaluation procedure. The following methods were used during the research: system analysis, statistical analysis, expert judgments, multidimensional analysis of economic information, engineering prediction and production knowledge models. The scientific innovation received is the method of selection of basic indices evaluation procedure which ensures the validity of analysis results by risk identification, quantitative estimation and management. Improved methods include: investment risk analysis is improved by inaccurate results risk research which enabled development of recommendations on risk factors influence reduction; initial information quality evaluation method for innovative projects. The following models and methods gain further development: knowledge-oriented models in projectanalysis by development of production models for selection of innovation projects basic indices evaluation procedure; theory of errors models by development of analytical models for project indices accuracy evaluation; decision tree method by evaluation of project analysis inaccurate results risk. The practical value of results got is decision support information technology and its application for ensuring of project analysis result validity. The results of dissertation research are used in two organizations and in educational process of the National Aerospace University.