Babak I. Method of the project analysis in view of risk factors cause-effect relationship

The object of research is a realization process of new technique creation project. The purpose of research is increase the time and resource expenses estimation reliability of new technique creation project on the base of the projects analysis in view of risk factors cause-effect relationships. The research methods are: system analysis, theory of fuzzy sets and relations, simulation method, project management and investment management, object-oriented programming. Scientific novelty of the received results: the method of the projects analysis used base principle of fuzzy sets theory and simulation methods is worked out in the first time, which, unlike existing, takes into account joint influence of risk factors, that allows to increase estimation reliability of project expenses, realization terms and efficiency parameters. The method of a risk factors estimation is improved by using fuzzy-plural representations of cause-effect relationships between them, that allows to take into account the mixed nature of risks factors. The project sensitivity analysis method to risk factors further developed by taking into account dependence between the entrance data, that allows to identify the most significant causes of project parameters value changes. The practical value of research consists in development of scientific-methodical base for tool means creation for research of risk factors complex influence on expenses and terms parameters of projects realization. The results of dissertational research are used in practice of the aviation technique development projects analysis. Their subsequent use is expediently in industrial and research enterprises, which carry out new technique development projects in aircraft construction, mechanical engineering, etc.