Zacharova L. Project risk management of underground coal extraction

The objects of the research are the processes of risk management in coal extraction. The methods of the research are: system approach, mathematical statistics and theory of probability, theory of random processes, factor analyses and investigation of project perception, theory of graphs and mathematical programming, imitation stochastic modeling. Practical importance of the results of research consists in 38.1% reduction of delays of the calendar plan fulfillment of the coal extracting project under the conditions of time shortage as well as financial, material and labor resource deficit. Scientific novelty of the results of the research consists of theoretical basis and tools of stochastic project modeling of the underground coal extraction project and its risk management. For the first time the stochastic net model of underground coal extraction project management has been developed; It has been proved that the amount of risks of delays of the terms of coal extraction calendar plan fulfillment is determined by stochastic modeling with optimum weekly step in time; new criteria of the perception of underground coal extraction project has been developed. Improved were: mathematical models of coal extraction project by imputing random quantities of calendar plan fulfillment instead of their determined values, as well as stochastic modeling with the help of modified Monte-Carlo method. Further development was given to the idea of stochastic interaction of the main and additional works of underground coal extraction calendar plan as random events; methods of management of coal extraction project risks.