Basing on the conducted research, the author of the dissertation presents solution of the important scientific and applied problem of improvement of the quality of implementation of the integrated projects of agrarian production by developing the worth and risk approach and elaborating the methods and models, which belong to the instruments of management of the mentioned projects during their initiating and planning in the variable project environment under limited resources. The work describes a developed system-risk concept of management of the integrated projects of agrarian production with consideration of the variable system relations between the mentioned projects. The thesis supplies a system description of the integrated projects of agrarian production and argues the cause and effect relationship between their components. The author proposes classification of the integrated projects of agrarian production, reveals the existing cause and effect relations between the separate subsystems, as well as argues the necessary changes of the flow of income impacts, configuration and resources, securing obtaining of the maximum value of the mentioned projects implementation. In the research, specifies peculiarities of resources utilization in the integrated projects, as well as proposes to assess the risk of investors of the integrated projects of raw materials production with application of the methods of the probability theory and mathematical statistics. The work substantiates the expedience of a system use of the bases of data and knowledge in the management of the integrated projects of agrarian production. To make effective management of the mentioned projects, it is recommended to fulfil three main and twelve supplementary processes. It is substantiated that the assessment of the risks of integrated projects needs modeling of each of the basic and derived projects, which considers the changeable system relations between them and improves the accuracy of the obtained results. It is determined that a change of the characteristics of time distribution of the volume of performed works depending on the location of the resources, which are involved in the implementation of the basic and derived projects, is the main basis to measure the minimal distance of their shipping. The dissertation presents the methods, developed for forecasting the life cycle of the projects of raw materials production for biofuel and agreement of the configurations of the integrated projects of raw materials and biofuel production, which secure a system assessment of the risk of the variable project environment, as well as its impact on argumentation of the configuration bases of implementation of separate stages of the projects and formation of their products. The improved models of assessment of the risk of investing in the projects of raw materials production for biofuel and the method of planning of case risks in the projects of raw materials for biofuel production enable the appropriate planning of the case risks, as well as quantitative evaluation and argumentation of the natural resources reserve as a response to that risk. The conduced research has resulted in shaping of the models of the risk of worth for the forecasted project environment and the set minimal profit of the investors of the projects of raw materials production for biofuel of rape, substantiation of a knowledge base, and practical introduction of the tools for solution of the problems of agreement of the configurations of the integrated projects of raw materials for biofuel production with consideration of their risk. The proposed method for agreement of the configurations of the integrated projects on production of raw materials and biofuel suggests fulfilment of twelve stages. It is argued that the events of the start of implementation of the projects of raw materials production for biofuel are changeable and described by the normal law of distribution, whereas the events of the completion of performance of the works on harvesting of raw material crops are described by the Weibull distribution law. Basing on the developed method of agreement of the configurations of the integrated projects of production of raw materials and biofuel, the author proposes an effective configuration of the mentioned projects according to the energy criterion. Applying the developed model for assessment of the risks of indices of worth for the investors of the projects of raw material production for biofuel, the author has studied the impact of the volume of investments in the projects on the risk of their worth indices. The work presents assessment of the risks of the projects of production of raw materials for biofuel, made of winter rape, under three scenarios. The research has defined dependences of the level of profitability risk on its minimal expected value under the different scenarios of the projects implementation.
