Novik A. Modeling of migration processes in Ukraine as a regulator of social and economic stability

In the dissertation, a complex of dynamic macroeconomic models of the Ukrainian economy was developed, including a vector autoregressive model and a separate complex of imitation submodels of system dynamics aimed at studying migration processes and their impact on indicators of socio-economic stability. The complex of economic and mathematical nonlinear imitation macroeconomic models which consists of such methods as the system dynamics and econometric VAR model of the interdependence of migration flows and macroeconomic indicators allows describing nonlinear processes that occur in economics due to the intensification of migration flows. The complex of these modules made it possible to conduct the scenario analysis of different policies aimed at the prediction of the risks for the economy in the long and short run related to the intensification of migration flows in terms of the high level of the shadow economy. At the same time, the developed models of system dynamics can be used both as a complicated system or independently, basing on the objectives of the research. Based on the obtained results, the concepts of migration, migrant, and socio-economic stability were generalized. Systematization and analysis of the main hypotheses of the impact of significant shadowing of the economy on the intensity of migration processes in Ukraine in the context of socio-economic stability allowed us to determine that migration is not a cause, but a consequence of high levels of shadow economy and instability. Based on the simulation results, a wide range of scenario analysis was carried out to determine promising directions of state policy on regulation of the labor market and migration flows to achieve socio-economic stability in the long term.