Bezkorovainyi V. Monitoring and forecasting the state and dynamics of the foreign exchange market

The dissertation is devoted to the further development of theoretical bases and mathematical tools of monitoring the state of the foreign exchange market and forecasting the dynamics of currency quotes. The economic essence, features of functioning and prospects of development of the currency market in the conditions of digital transformation are investigated. The systematic analysis of the current state and prospects of the foreign exchange market shows that it is the largest segment of the global financial system with a daily trading volume of more than 3 trillion US dollars, which makes it the most attractive for traders and investors with different investment horizons. This necessitates the improvement of existing and development of new effective analytical tools for monitoring and forecasting exchange rates. Recently an important part of the foreign exchange market has becomes the market of innovative financial instruments – cryptocurrencies. Its capitalization reached 1 trillion US dollars by the beginning of 2021. It can be concluded that cryptocurrencies perform all the classic functions of money and are a full-fledged cash, so they can be considered as alternative financial instruments for investment and trading. Critical analysis of the classical methodology and forecasting tools of currency quotes based on using technical analysis, econometric modeling, and time series approaches shows that it has limited practical value.