Guryanova L. Simulation of a mechanism of the assessment, analysis and forecasting of the socio-economic development of regions

Українська версія

Thesis for the degree of Doctor of Science (DSc)

State registration number

0514U000661

Applicant for

Specialization

  • 08.00.11 - Математичні методи, моделі та інформаційні технології в економіці

24-10-2014

Specialized Academic Board

Д 64.055.01

Simon Kuznets Kharkiv National University of Economics

Essay

The object of research: the processes of social and economic development; Objective: To develop theoretical and methodological approach to the formation of a complex model of the mechanism evaluation, analysis and forecasting of socio-economic development aimed at reducing inter-regional socio-economic differentiation, sustainable development of individual regions and the country as a whole; research method and apparatus, logical and theoretical generalization, analysis, synthesis, methods of multivariate statistical analysis, economic modeling, simulation and scenario modeling, factor analysis method, the method of canonical correlations, cluster analysis, spatial econometrics, logit- and probit-analysis method of panel data model of absolute and conditional convergence, decomposition of time series, adaptive forecasting model auto-regression moving average, Fourier analysis, SAR-model method of scenario modeling, simulation, theoretical and practical results: the theoretic and methodological approach to building complex models of the mechanism evaluation, analysis and forecasting of socio-economic development; the concept of balanced regional development, based on the use of scenario-based approach; The model prediction of socio-economic development of the system of financial regulation; formed complex patterns of production functions, analysis of regional development imbalances, choosing the optimal scenario; evaluation model of inter-regional socio-economic differentiation that is based on the methods of cluster analysis, principal components, canonical correlation, spatial econometrics; models for assessing the stability of cluster formations regions based on the use probit- and logit-analysis, dynamic panel data models; tsykloutvoren model the dynamics of indicators of economic development, which were obtained on the basis of decompositions of time series, linear-harmonic trends, methods of Fourier analysis, adaptive forecasting methods, models auto-regression moving average; Convergence analysis model of regional development; valuation models uneven socio-economic development; methodological position coordinate of the target investment areas; models for evaluating the potential of intra-regional cooperation; degree of implementation: development introduced in the work of the Department of Economics and International Relations of Kharkiv RSA, Department of Economics Ivano-Frankivsk RSA, Office of Economic Development of the Sevastopol CSA, Department of Economic Development, Trade Kirovohrad RSA, JSC "State Savings Bank of Ukraine" GP "Port of Sevastopol "JSC" HEAZ "KhNUE them. S. Kuznets in the educational process; Scope: assessment mechanism modeling, analysis, forecasting of socio-economic development.

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