Bazhenova O. External Sustainability of the Ukrainian Economy: Theory and Practice of Modeling.

The thesis is devoted to the development of theoretical and methodological foundations of research and economic and mathematical models of external sustainability of the Ukrainian economy. The theoretical and methodological foundations of economic growth as basis of external sustainability ensuring are considered. The approaches to the interpretation of the essence of the concept "external sustainability of the economy", its factors and methodological principles of its evaluation are analyzed. The concept of external sustainability modeling of Ukraine’s economy is proposed. An indicative system of external sustainability of economy that includes the formation of indicators system and the theoretical and methodical approach to its evaluation comprising statistical analysis of indicators system, calculation of their threshold percentiles inherent to national economy, probabilistic estimation of the indicators’ dynamics as a result of the shocks influence and calculation of instability probabilities is developed. The toolkit for determining the driving forces of economic growth in countries with commodity economies is proposed based on the construction of panel structural vector autoregression model of the interaction of gross national income per capita, the fixed capital, labor force and terms of trade growth rates imposing identifing restrictions on the impact of macroeconomic shocks (demand shock, supply shock, nominal shock and terms of trade shock). Econometric models to determine the sensitivity of the gross domestic product and the balance of current account growth rates in Ukraine to the change in world prices for the main export products are developed. The dynamic models of interdependence between gross domestic product and the current account growth rates, the quantitative and price terms of trade indices and their components (permanent and temporary) are constructed. The analysis of world economy trends in the context of external imbalances is carried out. The author calculated the indicators characterizing the concentration of current account positions in the countries of the world and their stability. The dynamics of the current account balance, national investment and savings and sources of current account deficit financing in Ukraine are analyzed. The influence of factors on the current account balance of Ukraine on the basis of constructing a model with Markov mode switching is estimated. The logit models of the dependence of Ukraine's real GDP volatility on foreign direct investment, portfolio investment, bonds and other long-term debt securities, bank sector loans and GDP growth rates in EU are constructed. The dynamic economic and mathematical models for determining the influence of systemically important economies on the main macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine on the basis of vector autoregression models toolkit are developed.