Nikonenko U. Transformation of macroeconomic policy of the commodity-exporting countries under the conditions of globalization

Українська версія

Thesis for the degree of Doctor of Science (DSc)

State registration number

0519U001639

Applicant for

Specialization

  • 08.00.02 - Світове господарство і міжнародні економічні відносини

11-10-2019

Specialized Academic Board

Д 11.051.03

Vasyl' Stus Donetsk National University

Essay

Object of the study: processes, tendencies and patterns of transformation of macroeconomic policy of the exporting countries of raw materials in the conditions of globalization; the purpose of the research: development of a coherent scientific concept of stabilization policy formation in the economies of commodity countries with a high degree of dependence on the volatility of global commodity markets; research methods and equipment: dialectical method, method of comparative analysis, system-structural method, methods of theoretical generalization, analysis, synthesis and grouping, method of Hodrick-Prescott filter, methods of correlation analysis, GARCH, vector autoregression, methods of formalization, modeling, graphical and regression analysis; theoretical and practical results: methodology of economic and statistical analysis of functional dependencies of commodity economy has been developed, which provides for simultaneous consideration of the dynamics of world commodity prices and their volatility; proposes a methodological approach to stabilization policy in low-income commodity economies, based on the consistent application of fiscal and monetary policy rules in the context of asymmetries between the exchange rate and the dynamics of world commodity prices; using the developed portfolio model of sectors with different yields (raw and non-raw) theoretically substantiated the possibility of maintaining the raw material orientation of the economy due to the higher current return on investments in human and physical capital in the raw materials sector; methodological approaches to the analysis of the modern debating phenomenon of financing the world commodity markets have been improved, taking into account the endogeneity of monetary factors (LIBOR rates, US stock market stock price, US dollar exchange rate), changes in income and price dynamics in commodity markets; proposed a methodological approach based on the extended AD-AS model to formulate a stabilization policy taking into account the phases of the commodity cycle, sectoral demand and supply in domestic and international commodity markets, asymmetric impact of the exchange rate and world commodity prices on both raw materials and non-raw materials; conceptual foundations of the commodity boom study as a process of increased dependence on financial factors have been developed; clarifies the methodology of the study of the phenomenon of "raw" monetary units, which takes into account the disadvantages of long-term maintenance of the lowered exchange rate, the feasibility of strengthening the monetary unit during the commodity boom, as well as the instrumental nature of the exchange rate as the most effective means of stimulating structural changes in favor of non-commodity economy; the conceptual approach to the scenario analysis of commodity inflation targeting policy is substantiated by taking into account the high dependence of the exchange rate on world commodity prices and the need to accumulate sufficient foreign exchange reserves as a factor of increasing confidence in the economy and increasing private investment; further developed theoretical and methodological approaches to the empirical study of the underlying factors of price dynamics in world commodity markets, such as increased volatility of commodity prices as the globalization processes (since the early 1990s) deepened and the dominant nature of oil price fluctuations in the oil market indexes; generalizes scientific and theoretical approaches to policy formulation to limit the volume of external borrowings as the main prerequisite for preventing chaotic reversals of the balance of payments, as well as increasing internal savings; the scientific and applied principles of assessing the level of economic freedom as a prerequisite for improving structural proportions and stimulating the investment process in an economy with an excess raw materials sector (such as Ukraine) were singled out; the theoretical and methodological foundations of the study of the structural changes in favor of the non-raw materials sector from the selected geopolitical orientation in foreign trade are determined on the basis of the elaborated economic and statistical model, which takes into account the dependence of the developed index of structural changes on the share of countries - the main partners in Ukraine; degree of implementation: developments implemented in the practical activities of Ministry of Finance of Ukraine, National Institute for Strategic Studies, Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of Ukraine, Lviv Regional Administration, Lviv Chamber of Commerce and Industry, JSC "Ukrspetstransgaz", LLC "Ukrainian Chemical and Energy Company", in the educational process of the Ukrainian Academy of Printing, Ternopil National Economic University; scope: improvement of transformation processes of macroeconomic policy of commodity exporting countries in the conditions of globalization.

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