Kotov E. The discursive nature of the modern political process: modeling and forecasting

Українська версія

Thesis for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

State registration number

0821U102164

Applicant for

Specialization

  • 052 - Соціальні та поведінкові науки. Політологія

19-07-2021

Specialized Academic Board

ДФ 11.051.027

Vasyl' Stus Donetsk National University

Essay

The political process is studied through its discursive embodiment, in which language appears as a system-forming vector that is self-actualized through specific political texts and activities that are realized and interpreted within the discursive structure’s permissible (specified) bounds. The essential possibility of formal language extraction and modeling of the structure of speech is demonstrated in the context of the work, in which each element organizes and is structured by other components, forming a complex structure of subordination relationships with them. As a result, the network itself, in the most redundant form possible, represents the structure of political speech within a separate symbolic association. This is the first time someone has offered a codified model of discourse. Furthermore, the work tries to introduce such a structure in a variety of ways, ranging from a simple transfer of theoretical concepts to the practical plane to various model modifications in an attempt to formalize political science research and increase the degree of verification of scientific search results. It is provided that in the modern political process, the actions of an individual are depersonalized, as a result of determining the subject within the framework of the discussion field, which provided him with possible, but limited (by hegemonic discourse) ways of subjectivation. Thus, a single political actor operates inside the framework of a fragmentary identity constrained by discourse, relying on a number of stable mental dispositions. In order to increase the degree of verifiability and formalization of the obtained data, the author proposed to conduct a discursive analysis using a formal model of political discourse analysis. The theoretical and practical foundations of this type of analysis are defined as a transformational synthesis of post-structuralist discursive theory and methods of distributive semantics and mathematical modeling, implemented in the R programming language. This analysis allowed us to build diachronic and synchronic models of the structure of the political discourse of Ukraine in the time interval 2009-2020. thus, During this analysis, it was determined that the implementation of this approach is possible, and also deduced a number of key positions regarding the discursive structure of the political process of Ukraine in different time intervals, which was chosen a step in two years, to track the ways and results of transformations in the discursive structure. The most essential elements of political discourse modeling from the perspective of forecasting were established and studied during the course of the research. A forecast of the model state with an intermediate interval of 2 years is constructed at the level of the pattern distribution of nodal points of the discursive structure, which is based on the dependence of random consecutive quantities, with a hierarchical definition of vectors of influence on the predicted period. The forecast is detailed in the definition of three key discursive patterns calculated using a probabilistic approach. As a result of the analysis, we can anticipate that the discursive structure model will remain stable at the nodal point level during the forecasted time, but it will be open to modifications at the level of content of individual symbols. Furthermore, the work addresses future research avenues and outlines major issues that must be addressed on the path to developing extended projections based on formal models of political discourse structure.

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