Gabbasova S. Predictive estimation of technogenic load on the Caspian Sea as a result of changes in the infrastructure of the sea area

The dissertation is devoted to solving a scientific and practical problem of comprehensive environmental analysis of the man-made load level in the Caspian region, the impact of changes in the region’s infrastructure on its sustainable development, application of environmental protection technologies to improve the ecological safety of marine waters. The goal of the dissertation research is to increase the level of environmental safety of the Caspian Sea and the implementation of the principles of rational environmental management and sustainable development of the region. The author set and solved the following tasks of the dissertation research: analysis of the ecological state of the Caspian Sea; identification of the main factors that influence the sustainable development of the region; conducting ecological monitoring of the Caspian Sea; study of the ecological state and its formation under the influence of man-made influence and developing of the pollution utilization technology; assessment of the impact of hydrocarbon pollution of the Caspian Sea; development of recommendations for protection of the environment from oil pollution; development of recommendations to reduce the occurrence of environmental risks; development of recommendations for the creation of a regional system of environmental safety. The author has analyzed the processes that form the ecosystem of the North Caspian Sea under natural conditions and, moreover, in a state of stress during oil spill emergencies. They are so complex, diverse and interdependent that it is virtually impossible to predict their development in quantitative terms. It was found that the ecological problems of the Caspian Sea and its coast are a consequence of the whole history of extensive economic development in the countries of the region. This affects both long-term natural changes (age fluctuations in sea level, climate change) and socio-economic problems (economic crises, regional conflicts, the development of oil production, etc.). Accounting and research of man-made factors of pollution of the Caspian Sea, their relationship with the natural environment is a complex and multifactorial task. It requires information support of various factor data and the use of modern methods of their analysis. The author has proposed a combined method of purification of oil pollution, which works in two stages and allows to achieve a high degree of purification. For the first time, the author conducted a comprehensive analysis of environmental problems, which revealed the river runoff as the predominant source of pollution of the marine environment with petroleum products, pesticides and heavy metals. The author for the first time has defined technogenic tense zones and received a data of dynamics of oil pollution of the marine environment. For the first time, the author has developed a system of indicators and signal quality indicators to assess the man-made load on the Caspian Sea using the integrated-differential method, which takes into account both physico-chemical properties of the abiotic component of the ecosystem and parameters of ecological and trophic biota groups. For the first time, the author has found patterns of changes in pH and gas formation of the process of destruction of petroleum hydrocarbons after the introduction of a hybrid biological product based on biochemical waste. The author for the first time developed measures to prevent threats to environmental safety and prevent environmental risks in the Caspian region and proposed options for improving the regulatory framework governing the environmental safety of the region. The author has developed hydrodynamic models of oil spreading and spills, which allowed to determine the volume and area of the oil slick to predict the scale of emergency oil spills into the sea and the area of maximum ecosystem damage. A set of measures to ensure environmental safety and sustainable development of the Caspian region based on the conducted environmental monitoring of the Caspian Sea was proposed. The biochemical method of oil spill liquidation as the most effective has been substantiated. As a result biological preparation in the form of granules containing immobilized active strains of microorganisms with oil-destructive ability has been developed and obtained. Proposed technology has showed high efficiency of destruction of oil and oil products. Measures to reduce the potential environmental risk from man-made impacts, which makes it possible to increase the level of environmental safety of the Caspian region, have been developed.