Pliushch D. Foreign trade effects of the free trade zone between Ukraine and the EU.

Українська версія

Thesis for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

State registration number

0822U100326

Applicant for

Specialization

  • 292 - Міжнародні економічні відносини

11-01-2021

Specialized Academic Board

ДФ 26.001.224

Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv

Essay

The dissertation is devoted to the theoretical and methodological substantiation of definition and calculation of economic effects of Ukraine's free trade zone with the EU, analysis of external effect - forming factors of Ukraine' s trade with the EU countries in the transformation of trade policy as a factor of trade efficiency. The relevance of the research topic is primarily determined by the role of the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area of Ukraine with the European Union in the process of economic development of Ukraine. It is important to analyze the nature and scope of the economic effects of Ukraine's foreign trade relations with the EU. The creation of a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area between Ukraine and the European Union will open a potential market for producers of goods and services of Ukrainian origin. Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area between Ukraine and the EU is a new form of integration that involves expanding regulatory areas and deep regulatory cooperation. The Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area creates the fundamental basis for the participation of the national economy in regional and global value chains. Access to the internal market of the European Union based on a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area creates the preconditions for a more active presence of Ukraine in world markets. The implementation of the Association Agreement with the EU is influenced by the existing risks of deteriorating trade relations between Ukraine and the Russian Federation in the context of a hybrid war, which negatively affects the foreign trade results of Ukraine. The impact of the creation of a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area between Ukraine and the EU on the country's economic growth is the subject of study to assess Ukraine's foreign trade performance. the analysis of changes in intra-industry trade in goods in Ukraine within the creation of a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area between Ukraine and the EU is important for the study of economic effects and pro-European directions of orientation of Ukraine's economy. The study provides a description of such issues as: theoretical and methodological bases for determining the economic effects of free trade zones in the world economy; mechanisms of occurrence of static and dynamic foreign trade effects in the conditions of the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area of Ukraine with the EU; tendencies of bilateral complementarity of trade relations between Ukraine and the EU; effects of creation and rejection of Ukraine's trade with the EU; foreign trade indices of Ukraine's economic association with the EU; assessment of the transformation of Ukraine's trade policy as a factor in the effectiveness of trade with the EU; analysis of the implementation of the action plan of the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the EU; effects and consequences of the trade war of the Russian Federation against Ukraine for European integration processes; potential and role of undertraded foreign markets for the development of Ukraine's trade with the EU; strengthening Ukraine's dependence on the EU commodity market and on foreign markets in general; reorientation of Ukraine's trade from the EAEU countries to the EU countries and third countries. The scientific novelty of the obtained results lies in the systematization and deepening of theoretical and methodological approaches to the classification and determination of foreign trade effects of Ukraine's free trade zone with EU countries in the implementation of the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the European Union. The main provisions of scientific novelty, which are received personally and submitted for defence, are as follows: For the first time: - the tendencies of bilateral complementarity of trade relations in the conditions of development of the free trade zone between Ukraine and the EU countries are investigated, the analysis of dynamics of the index of complementarity of trade for Ukraine and the EU is carried out; - it was found that the EU countries and Ukraine are "natural trade partners", as evidenced by the high level of trade complementarity; - it was concluded that the dynamics of the complementarity index of Ukraine with the EU countries tends to gradually increase, which is a positive result of the creation of a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area between Ukraine and the EU; - the influence of the main factors on the change of the complementarity coefficient of Ukraine's trade with the EU - the volume of import-export of goods between

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