Zhang X. Formation of prognostic skills in future musical art teachers in the process of piano training

The thesis presents scientific substantiation of the problem of prognostic skills formation in future teachers of musical art in the process of piano training, which is manifested in the development and experimental testing of its methodological support of this process. The theoretical issues and practical mechanisms of prognostic skills realization in the sphere of musical, in particular performing-instrumental activity, as well as the peculiarities of its application in order to make effective management decisions in educational, music-pedagogical, economic and social spheres of human activity are considered. Common and different features of the various types of forecasts, in particular forecasts of humanitarian and economic spheres of activity, are revealed. A retrospective analysis of the initial concepts of prognostics was conducted, a synonymous series of the concept of forecast in scientific and artistic discourse was analyzed; its various types (search and normative) were characterized; classifications and main prognostic categories (statistics and dynamics) were singled out; the mechanisms of the forecasting process and its main functions (retrospection, diagnostics, prospection) in the context of artistic-educational activity were specified. Generalization of the pedagogical experience and scientific literature of the methodological nature has allowed to choose the pedagogical conditions for the formation of prognostic skills in the process of piano training. The first condition includes organization of students’ artistic-cognitive activities on the basis of defining probabilistic-prognostic tasks of informational-cognitive and instrumental-performing nature. These tasks are aimed at motivating future teachers of musical art to activate sound-auditory premonition during the interpretation of musical works, as well as perform prognostic operations in order to anticipate the results of artistic-presentation interaction. The second condition includes involvement of students in the creative research process aimed at the development of general and special prognostic skills. The third condition lies in orientation of students on the dynamics of current achievements in relation to the trajectory of the subject or the phenomenon of music-pedagogical process in accordance with the projected result, which in some cases involves mastering by students of a variety of correctional scenarios. Introduction of the first pedagogical condition at the first (retrospective) stage involved implementation of the methods: anticipatory-interpretive orientation, selection of probabilistic artistic-prognostic tasks, prognostic actions, identifying problems and ways to solve them optimally. Implementation of the second condition, which was introduced at the diagnostic-modeling (second) stage of the experimental work was ensured by introduction of a number of pedagogical methods: formalization, extrapolation, apperception, creative music making, script method, “forecast tree” method and idealization.