Rumyantseva I. Forecasting tourist demand in crisis phenomena.

The object of research is the processes of formation of tourist demand. The aim of the dissertation work is to improve the theoretical and methodological provisions and practical recommendations for forecasting the tourist demand of destinations in Ukraine under conditions of crisis phenomena. As a result of the study, the methods of scientific knowledge were systematized. In particular, system-structural and logical methods are used to determine the economic essence of the concept of "tourist demand", the peculiarities of its formation and development. Statistical methods and the method of comparative analysis are used to analyze the impact of crisis phenomena on tourism demand in the world and in Ukraine. Economic-mathematical methods were applied to build a model for forecasting tourist demand and develop a concept for forecasting tourist demand. Graphical and matrix methods are used for visual display of research results. The model for determining the essence of tourist demand was improved, on the basis of which the actual concept of tourist demand was given in the work as a complex of tourist goods and services that a tourist needs at a certain level of income and motivation, and which is aimed at a diverse range of goods and services (destinations) during a certain period timeю The model of the dynamics of tourist demand and its dependence on certain economic indicators, which have a sufficiently high level of statistical significance, has been further developed and has practical application for the purpose of forecasting when determining the directions of development of enterprises in the tourism industry, as well as when forecasting tourist flows depending on the influence of external factors. The proposed concept of tourism demand forecasting is based on the management of a tourist destination through demand forecasting using a complex of economic and mathematical models. The presented concept differs from the existing ones in that it allows making decisions about the possibility of influencing the achievement of the desired level of demand. The model of the dynamics of tourist demand based on a generalized logistic mapping has been improved, which, unlike the existing ones, contains two components - unmanaged and managed, which makes it possible to forecast the demand for tourist services and determine managed parameters that can be used to choose management methods aimed at increasing the level of tourist demand and the model of the dynamics of tourist demand taking into account the quality of tourist services, which, unlike the existing ones, contains components that describe the process of formation of tourist demand under the condition of applying a list of management measures of the destination, including changes in the level of quality of tourist services offered.